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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: paul_philp who wrote (52288)	7/22/2002 7:07:36 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (2) of 54805

Siebel (client/server applications) By modern taxonomy, Siebel is not a Client/Server application. It is more properly an N-tier, highly distributable application with a flyweight client ... i.e., essentially two generations beyond Client/Server in the classic sense. The smaller threat comes from the building of CRM-like components into the portal frameworks being used to create newer web-based applications. Instead of presenting the end use with a number of complete applications the portal presents the end user with an integrated view of the components of the application she needs to do her job. This trend weakens the C/S vendors lock on the end user. Since end user switcing costs are part of the competitive advantage of the C/S vendors anything which lowers these costs weakens their position. Skiping past the identification as a "C/S vendor", the irony of this viewpoint is that Siebel's whole business is built on presenting a unified tool for all interactions regarding the customer. Why would it be an attraction to return to separate components from multiple sources which were unified only be being embedded in the same portal? Not to mention the massive disparity in functionality between the Siebel suite and the sort of very limited components likely to come from the tool vendors any time soon. However, this is only a minor problem. The big issue is data. ... In the Web Services world there will be more value placed on 'analytic data' than simply 'process data'. By this I mean that data from multiple applicatins, different sources and even multiple companies will be combined into higher level information tuned to the end user's specific job. Which, as mentioned above, is exactly the business that Siebel is in. To accomplish this transition, the data exchange formats will need to be expressed in a standard - XML No argument ... but those exchange formats are as significant to and from Siebel as they are anywhere else. What it means is that it will be increasingly easy to tie in other applications such as ERP systems so that they can do what they do and Siebel can do what it does. Being able to more freely exchange data doesn't eliminate the need for a sophisticated, integrated application to make sense of it. Any time the customers get a little upitty the vendor just needs to change to SQL tables a bit and they settle right back down. Oh, you mean like the tools Siebel has put into Version 7 to insure an upgrade path even if people modify their applications? I see this as a classic disruption a la Christensen and I don't see any C/S vendor managing the transition. If there is a disruption coming here, I don't think we know what it is yet. The only issue is when and what the techonology mix is between J2EE and .NET. I'm not at all sure that either will emerge a victor in anything like the all-encompassing way that either party would like one to believe. Remember how recently it was taken for granted that the only possible victor was Java? Notice how much this was placed into doubt by .NET? Notice how both technologies have big hurdles yet to cross at the high end? Not only would I not count out some other new technology as a possible victor, but more likely I expect that no ultimate victor will ever emerge.

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