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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: LTK007 who wrote (97260)7/22/2002 8:18:52 PM
From: Boolish  Read Replies (4) of 99280
 
Any thoughts on this? I notice there is a growing feeling of bearish confidence over here....sylvester80 is posting some fairly positive earnings from some big companies with 0 replies to his message. This is when you ought to be careful.

When the bottom does come it will likely be the bottom for the year IMO and not just a short term bounce or summer rally. I have severely underestimated this leg down in the market but the extreme in selling pressure and negative sentiment is exceeding that seen at the September lows and we all know that we got more than just a bounce from there. The only time this market has been more oversold in the last 40 years was the 1987 crash and at the bottom of the 1974 bear market if you look at how far below the market is trading below it's 200 DMA. Of course, records are made to be broken and so I will never say that we can't go a lot further down in the comming weeks because we can. But with the VIX touching a hair under 50, a picture of a big bear on the latest Businessweek cover, Time magazine cover story saying "will you ever be able to retire?" odds are that a bottom is immanent. Once the VIX has turned down from these high levels it has always marked a signficant bottom and reverted back to 20 before the next major decline commenced. Now, don't get me wrong I'm not calling for the end of the bear market, but we could very well see a 3-9 month cyclical bull market. I still see a lot of problems with the economy and the market but the same indicators that told me a market top was immanent in the December-January period are now flashing the opposite message.
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