Anindo, get a book called, The Money Game. Pe's of 100+ were not uncommon in early 1962. Back then, they called it The Great Garbage Market. No good story was left untold.
6 months later, the cleansing process had changed things.
mrci.com
Then what happened? Yes, that is new highs months later, a nearly 100% run on the SP. Much higher highs in 65. Then the 65 to 82 "bear," during which the old highs were challenged on averag at least every other year. You see that happening now?
I realize that every rational person is looking for answers as to why we are where we are. I guess any opinion is as valid as the next, but I personally don't buy any of it. This is all unprecedented. Period.
Look at this:
mrci.com
You see any similarities? And the fundamentals are the same and all, right? Of course not. What you are looking at is a past pattern that describes in a picture the result of mob behavior. That is what is going on. If the "bubble" really existed before oct 98, why was the dow trading at a pe of about 16, with very low rates, and the nasdaq was its typical ratio vs. the dow? We popped the bubble long, long ago. By April 01, it was done. This is the aftermath.
If we want guys with the answers, find someone who is trading the retrace. I am not but it is working for them incredibly well.
OTOH, this animal wants to screw the maximum number of people, so they way for that to happen is probably to rally this when everyone is trading the retrace and looking for nasdaq under 1200 or worse. We'll see. Whatever scenario you can imagine that will hurt the majority is probably what will occur.
Just mo. |
