Updated: 23-Jul-02
General Commentary
Monday's outcome was about the worst possible... There was no rally, and the losses were not big enough to wash out the remaining sellers... Consequently, the market is likely to remain on the defensive again on Tuesday... In fact, the sector/indices will continue to struggle until we get a big sell-off early, followed by a strong closing rally and a big, broad gain the next day.
Buyers need a reason to get back into the game and right now they seem content to wait for an obvious sign of capitulation - such as another sudden, sharp 300-500 point decline in the DJIA... At that point, we expect to see the first real signs of institutional buying in several months... Briefing.com already hearing from buy-side sources that they're starting to nibble again - the first such talk in months... Once the market washes out the remaining sellers, we could finally see buyers take control for a period of weeks, if not months.
Under such a scenario, tech will be significant player in the recovery as group has been one of the hardest hit... Like the rubberband that's been stretched too far, the sector is poised to snap back... A clouded earnings outlook will keep the sector from pacing the rebound, but we could still see some impressive double-digit percentage gains in stocks such as BRCD, EMLX, INTC, VRTS, HPQ, AMD, LSI, BRCM, NOK, AWE, PCS, MSFT, AMAT, DELL, SAP, IBM, QLGC, ZRAN, SEBL, JNPR, NTAP, TQNT, EXTR and CSCO.
Might not be the ultimate bottom, but we approaching the best trading opportunity for bulls in months.
Robert Walberg |
