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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (14897)	7/23/2002 2:21:50 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) of 78525

Paul: Started C @28.01 Positives: Global franchise with size related competitive advantages selling <8 PE [03 3.67 est EPS]; Concerns: Hit to reputational capital from Grubman, Enron, Litigation from same, derivitives and complexity make it difficult to analyze and value, debt magnifies asset hits. Liquidity & uncertainty make it source of cash for fund redemptions. Prior to 6/20, C hadn't recently dipped below 40 other than 911, and it has Strong buys from most analysts with targets in the 60-70 range, so if we look at 40 [<11X 03 est] reasonable value, then this sell off at 28 represents over $60Billion in market value wipe-out. I can't quantify the value or the risks, but that seems a bit excessive. Unfortunately there's a long list of stuff I've thought that about and been proven very early or very wrong.

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