I was obviously wrong, very wrong, in thinking the 9/01 low was THE low. It remains to be seen how wrong I was. My current plan is to simply hang on, and sell into the next big rally, getting off margin with the Nas in the 1700-1900 area. IMO, unemployment isn't going much higher than it is now. And the housing sector and consumer spending would have collapsed by now, if they were going to. They haven't, and so I think the fundamentals for companies get slowly better from here. No depression, no double-dip recession, is my guess. We are past the trough, several quarters past it, for company fundamentals. This panic selling of stocks is ignoring that, and is being driven by the collapsing confidence in corporate management, the feeling that the game is rigged and investors can't trust any numbers. IMO, the fact that everyone is finally focussing on this issue, means the problem is being dealt with. It's a bullish signal.
Meanwhile, AMAT has no support above its 10/01 low. |
