Gave me mucho wood to hear Maria say "maybe we should forget looking for a bottom and find some stock to short".
Sportscasterdude Al Michaels gave a great interview on playing the Casino long and short last night.
Seems Maria is suffering a Dose of Type II Bottom fishing Cognitive Dissonance
Due to "cognitive dissonance," if a person is asked if a certain idea is true, and his response is, "I don't know," it may not be the case that "sufficient evidence" is lacking. His "I don't know" may be of the "cognitive dissonance" variety. In sum, his doubt can be categorized as being of two possible types:
the logical
"I don't know,"
is based on
logic and reason.
Type I,
the logical "I don't know," is based on logic and reason. For example, before probes landed on Mars and sent back reports, if a scientist had been asked if Mars had life on it, he would have answered simply, "I don't know." The basis for his answer was purely rational. He lacked information. Before the probes scientists had no conclusive proof about whether there was life on Mars. Possibly there was life there, but how could anyone know?
the emotional
"I don't know,"
is completely divorced
from logic and reason.
doubt springs
from a powerful
and subconscious
"I can't take it."
Type II,
the emotional "I don't know," is completely divorced from logic and reason. Doubt here is not based on a lack of evidence or a shortage of information. On the contrary, the evidence here is compelling, but doubt springs from a powerful and subconscious "I can't take it." Examples of this type abound, especially in the history of science [see Menu] where sufficient evidence existed to support new, revolutionary discoveries, but scientists could not accept the evidence, and remained skeptical, for the new findings flew in the face of their views. "Cognitive dissonance," the phenomenon that creates this type of doubt, can provoke bizarre thinking even in those who are noted for logic and reason. |
