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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: yard_man who wrote (182665)	7/23/2002 6:03:26 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) of 436258

SOX ran from 200 in October 1998 to around 1000 in June 1999 and then rolled over; PEAK earnings for Maxim didn't come til December '00, for Microchip in September '00 and Applied Materials October '00. OSX ran from 45 in early 1999 to 135 in early 2001. PEAK earnings for my three fave OSX stocks, Patterson, Tidewater, and Nabors, came in September 2001. so both times you had a multi-bagger run that lasted +/- 2 years, and then a STEEP decline that came 3-6 months BEFORE the peak in earnings. now look at Beazer. from $20 in early '00 to well over $80 in mid '02 (so two-year multi-bagger run). steep decline, but earnings still going up. but what the market is telling you is that September, maybe December (due to the inherent lags in homebuilding) will be "peak" earnings for these stocks and from there earnings are going down hard. they can rally them all they want TOMORROW. the stocks are going down. Cheers

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