NiceGuy,
Nice Numerology. <g>
But Q 1's numbers raise some, as yet unanswered, but fairly important questions.
The way I see it $7.2 mil in gross sales on 2 mil Fram chips shipped gives $3.6/unit gross. If 2 mil is the bottom for Q2 sales we get another $7.2 mil revenue. At the high end we sell an added million and get $10.8 mil in revenue. This is good. ...This is very good. <vbg>
But...
Looking at the Q1 FRAM royalty revenue from Fujitsu ($69,000), and assuming the ASP at $1.8/unit for Fujisu sales ($3.6/unit is a bit much for sales into the smartcard market, even the <Hoo> "High End") and further assuming that Fujitsu is still producing only 2500 wafers a month and paying royalties of 2% on their sales but not RMTR's we get:
Fujitsu sales for Q1 at $3,450,000 on 1,916,666 units sold at $1.8/unit. That gives about 4 mil units sold between Fujitsu and RMTR for the 1st Q. Figuring 2500 wafers a month we assume Fujitsu is getting upwards of 533 units per wafer.
...I don't care how efficient the process or how teenie weenie these things are, 533 units per wafer doesn't compute at 4 inch wafer sizes. 12 inch sure. 8 inch, maybe. 4/6 inch? Fat chance? <Hoo Hoo>
But whatever the wafer size, what does this say about the economics of FRAM? Obviously, with Ampy/Enel RMTR doesn't have enough product to supply any other significant contractor. It also implies that Fujitsu might be better off selling all its FRAM production to RMTR than selling into the smartcard market; but in any case they clearly haven't broken any sales records Go-Card, SmartTrip or other card market.
Why not? I think this is a "fare" question. <Hoo Hoo>
After all we know what these chips can do performance wise. If we disregard cost it's the hands down winner for any smartcard RF/ID application. So I have to assume that the $1.8 to 3.6 ASP is simply too high for that market to "bear." <g>
Thus the primordial question why can't Fujitsu, the "industry leading" FRAM producer, spin these chips for less than $1.8/unit? And if they can't who can? If they "can," why aren't they?
The implication for me, confessed Buck Seventy Five Buyer that I am, is that RMTR is strangling on a lack of production. This would appear to be confirmed by the local interest in a dedicated Fab partnership.
But the reeeeeally scary thingy about all this is that the semi sector is bleeding red ink. I can't remember the last time a non-RMBS major memory fab announced a profit. Perhaps they have found a way to do without income. But one would think that if they could make FRAM as cheaply as EEPROM and sell it at a $1 ASP, they would be falling over themselves to ship the stuff. ...Yet here we sit. Watching a single producer run out a paltry 2500 wafers a month.
Don't get me wrong. I am quite sure that there is an answer to this quantum quandary. Although I suspect that it has something to do with the mystic numerology of generation "0.90", ...I simply can't say that I have any understanding as to why, or if, this is true.
Nevertheless, I am betting that the neither the Mom & Pops, nor even the Keepers of the MoMo Mysteries have figured it out either. So my guess is that I've got at least a 50/50 shot at those Buck Seventy Fives. <Hoo Hoo>
0|0 |
