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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs
SPY 671.910.0%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST
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To: Lachesis Atropos who wrote (37775)7/24/2002 5:27:06 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (2) of 67962
 
Hi Lawrence,

I expect only a technical rally and one that is short in duration. I would not go long or short for more than a day or two at this point.

Message 17785447

The important thing to note is any low that gets established will need to re-tested, before the indices can move higher in a sustained manner. There is no hurry.

Longer term I am still formulating possible scenarios. Your downside on the COMPX is a lot lower than my worst case scenario right now which is around 1000.

Facts against a market rally longer term:

1) Trader have now psychological pushed the recovery out to
2H 2003 (target for some telecom equip vendors)
2) Consumer spending numbers are showing a possible weakening trend
3) Layoffs have accelerated again due to carrier, telecom equipment, and chip equipment vendors lay offs
4) No confidence in the US markets given the scandals and Bush administration lack of a serious plan to address the issue. Foreign trader are not coming back for years.
5) Next Q traditionally weak

Facts for a market rally:
1) Inventories are down. Inventories approaching run rate dictated by demand
2) markets technically oversold
3) Expect demand uptick in the second half due to back to school and Christmas demand

Without my normal intra-day charts I will be blind tomorrow. The SI charts still remain down. I was able to guess today, but without update charts I can't make similar
projections for tomorrow.
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