Told you so... We were THAT close to WWIII:
Furthermore, Yastrzhembsky told journalists that Russia's new defense doctrine would permit the use of nuclear weapons in case of an attack by Afghanistan against Russia or any of its allies. Unlike the former Soviet military doctrine, Russia's new doctrine does not require that the enemy possesses nuclear weapons and launches a nuclear attack first in order for Russia to use nuclear weapons.
Excerpted from:
Aerial Strikes against Afghanistan
Venik's Aviation Page
May 28, 2000
"Preparation of terrorists for combat operations in Chechnya on Afghanistan's territory controlled by the Taleban movement is nothing else but a direct interference with Russia's internal affairs. Further such activity by Taleban would lead to preventative aerial strikes by Russia against bases and camps involved in training terrorists. In such an event the situation along the border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan will undoubtedly become very unstable. So far, however, the conflict in Chechnya has no negative results on the security situation along the border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan. This is explained by the fact that the regions of Afghanistan bordering Tajikistan are controlled by Akhmad Shakh Masud -- Taleban's primary opponent." This was a part of the speech given on May 26 by the director of Russia's Federal Border Guard Service, Constantine Totsky.
The spokesman for the Russian government on Chechen affairs, Sergei Yastrzhembsky, was the first government official to raise the issue of possible preventative aerial strikes against Afghanistan, if the latter continues to train mercenaries for the war in Chechnya and to supply Chechen rebels with weapons and ammunition. This announcement by Yastrzhembsky, made several days ago, went largely unnoticed in the West. Many western news agencies and politicians are still under an impression that Russia is run by Yeltsin's government, with its frequent strong statements and subsequent withdrawals and "corrections." It appears that the western media was expecting Yastrzhembsky to back down on his threats against Afghanistan. The same was expected by some Russian politicians and media sources as well.
However, it is important to remember that Yastrzhembsky is not a member of the Russian government, he's not a politician. Sergei Yastrzhembsky is a spokesman for the Russian President on the situation in Chechnya and pretty much everything Yastrzhembsky says represents Vladimir Putin's personal opinion on the situation. Just as Western and Russian newspapers were wondering when Yastrzhembsky would backtrack on his threats of preventative strikes against Afghanistan, he made an announcement further reinforcing the threat of aerial strikes. Furthermore, Yastrzhembsky told journalists that Russia's new defense doctrine would permit the use of nuclear weapons in case of an attack by Afghanistan against Russia or any of its allies. Unlike the former Soviet military doctrine, Russia's new doctrine does not require that the enemy possesses nuclear weapons and launches a nuclear attack first in order for Russia to use nuclear weapons. A possibility of preventative aerial strikes against Afghanistan was also mentioned by Russia's Foreign Minister, Igor Ivanov, and by Russia's Defense minister, Igor Sergeyev, giving this threat considerable additional weight and confirming that the initiative is not coming from Yastrzhembsky but from Vladimir Putin.
The two primary questions, should Russia decides to launch aerial strikes against Afghanistan, would be of political and military nature. First, it is important to determine what Russia wants to achieve politically by launching a military attack against Taleban forces and what will be the consequences of such an attack for Russia in terms of international politics. Second, it is necessary to determine what Russia wants to achieve militarily by attacking Afghanistan. In both cases Russia must establish achievable goals which would not require considerable investments in terms of time or resources. On the international arena Russia wants to make it clear that it will not tolerate attempts by other countries to interfere in Russia's internal affairs. This would apply not only to Afghanistan but also to other countries directly supporting Chechen rebels: Yemen, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan. The type of an operation Russia can afford militarily would be an aerial strike against fixed strategic targets in Afghanistan employing ballistic missiles and long-range aviation.
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