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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 296.74

+1.8%

Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: James Calladine who started this subject	7/24/2002 9:19:56 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) of 95490

Ongoing lesson...today will epitomize it: KLIC remains the canary. AMAT will soon be in single digits, along with TER and possibly even NVLS. The premises have changed. Valuation of US stocks over the past 3-4 decades was based on certain criteria, with trust near the top. Trust is toast...and perceived appropriate valuations have been severely reduced. US stocks will trade at PE levels significantly lower than prior decades for a very long time...and investors, especially the pros, will be suckered into believing they've grabbed 'value'. Nope. Buying a PE=10 stock will be buying the median valuation, and this will be the norm for probably the next 10 to 15 years. The premises have changed. That's why 'bottom-calling' and all this other technical garbage based on historical patterns is total nonsense.

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