Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 296.74

+1.8%

Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: scott_jiminez who wrote (4258)	7/24/2002 9:34:42 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) of 95490

The premises have changed. That's why 'bottom-calling' and all this other technical garbage based on historical patterns is total nonsense. So what you are implying is that this time there will be no bottom to speak of? As far as KLIC being the canary, KLIC has a large debt burden most large equipment companies do not. Additionally, the backlog for the front end cos. are much higher than in previous downcycles. Not to mention the ongoing capacity SHORTAGE at .13u and below, that nearly all foundries are facing. Single digits are indeed possible for AMAT- it is only 5 points away. But to believe that KLIC is somehow a barometer for the industry is ludicrous. Buying a PE=10 stock will be buying the median valuation, and this will be the norm for probably the next 10 to 15 years. This sounds eerily familiar to similar things being said at the top about valuations not mattering any more. Regards, Brian

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