GF:
If you collect all the wit and wisdom of the markets for a long time you'd have nothing but contradictory advice, imho, but there are a couple of things you can more or less depend on, if you're careful.
One is that sometime during January you'll have a rally, and that the best money will be made during the season when "hope springs eternal" a.k.a. the first quarter. Another is that September and October will bring about the first stages of yearly loss-selling, some years it will be worse than others. A third is that there is a 4-5 week window beginning around Thanksgiving and ending after Christmas when it will be good to acquire positions that people who are tax-loss selling are jettisoning. A fourth is that sometime during January you'll have a rally, whoops, we already did that one, didn't we?
As for why we're going to have a tuna melt in Sept/Oct, it has to do with the massive tax selling and book clean up that the funds will be doing then. As for why people think if a lot of people believe something then it couldn't possibly happen, well, that must have something to do with the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, which says the market knows all, discounts all, and nobody can make a dime.
I think the Dow is done going down for the summer, and perhaps the Naz as well, and that we get the final crush in the fall, to a Dow of 6600, and maybe the Naz simply retraces its way to 1150 or so.
In any event, except for shorting the homeboys I won't have much appetite for selling any positions for a while now (until we have a VIX reflecting sanity and some calmness).
Just my dos centavos, mein swei Pfennig,
Kb |
