Market commentary:
Going after the Adelphia Mob was a cheap trick. I notice that nobody named Lay or Ebbers or anyone else with high connections went to the slammer. The guys who never slept in Lincoln's Bedroom (cuz they were busy screwing everyone there) got a free pass today.
The cheap trick didn't raise the mkt. This market was simply as due as a 9-1/2 mo fetus doing the Riverdance on Mama's bladderette.
The Congressional reform bill was also non-instrumental. I saw no surprises - like a meaningful reform - slinking outa that crockus. World champeen bookcookers & deficit spenders rarely prove good at reforming the mere amateurs in bidness boredrooms.
Andrew Grove of Intel made the right call last week when he indicated the reforms would have to be self-imposed, deep, and pervasive. We are starting to see the mere tip of that hope as a few companies step up to say they'll include stock options in future expensing.
But the damage has been done, and further repercussions will occur before that hope delivers a bull rally that lasts a year.
We priced in the greed, corruption, fraud, shell games, double dippers, terrorists, double-agent analyzing, conspiracy theories (which were gross underestimates of the reality)... but not global warming, continental shelf drifting, nor the pending invasion of Martians.
But we will.
We put down the place setting; from here on out, we can only guess when the Unwelcome arrive for the final crumbs. But come, they will.
Just as fleas appear to denigrate solid mkt calls like Zeev's because the mkt exceeded his Nassacre target by 104 points, so do the other insect plagues.
But no reson to fret now; the summer bottom is prolly in. And forget the gapncrap talk. Going long through Friday is the only way to fly. 1265 is likely support nearterm. My first target on NASDy is 1430, though a pullback at 1375 is likely.
I'd like to think we can do 1765 in 7 weeks. But that's likely too optimistic. First we hafta get through Monday without new lows.
All the talk is about the DOW rally but it was also a good run on NASDy, the first 98 point rally since early Oct last year. And what triggered it?
Simple. What happened to golddiggers, with their bullish TA formations? They shoulda riz this week. Unless some major manipulation was underway. And ya need look no further than the USD$ this week for proof. Yesterday's bullish dollar presaged the index rebound.
But the dollar chart still has a H&S formation so it's looking like a big giant brake on any sustained rally. We could peak intraday on 8/3 and again on 8/9. Beyond that it's too early to project.
After all, when we broke 1245, we broke the bottom of a NASDy uptrend that began in 1990. That means the coming channel to trade in must be one that ascends from an earlier point.... like 1978. And that's too bad, because the stage is now set for a tumble that could take us to below 700 in NASDy. Between October of this year and January 2004.... though if it comes later in that period, we won't sink that low.
We lost a critical support with yesterday's close. The risks are higher than ever now. So let's just see if we can get outa July safe, because the next (lower) bottom won't come in August or September.
And watch that dollar! |
