HERE'S MY NEWSLETTER FO THE 7TH AND THE 14TH WITH ONE VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE I'LL POST HERE..
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED JULY 7TH 2002
"HEADLINE"
BEARS IN THE HAMPTON'S--BULLS RUN RAMPANT
Hi there everyone...what a fabulous weekend here in the East and down at the Jersey shore...We ate drank and made merry...Why??? Rally on Wall Street of course<G>!!!...Hope you and you're families are all well and happy this 4th of July holiday..It was nice...
Well?, so what's UP?...I had to laugh as I opened Barron's while sitting on the beach in Margate NJ..I was writing my newsletter with that heading above, and damn if A. Ableson didn't think the very same thing<vbg>..I guess a lot of us thought the same for what it's worth..When the Cat's away the mice will play...And play they did..Massive up day as I called it early Friday am, at 8.19 prior to the Employment Report...This was a runaway, breakaway gap up..pure and simple..Hope everyone held all longs as suggested for the open manyana...
What is kind of discouraging though, is that it did NOTHING for the P&F charts or indicators..I mean zilch...Not good...YET!!!..Hang on here for a minute...It seems many are saying this is NOT real...Well that maybe so, but at the very least let's SEE where it takes us huh? Look I said hold all longs over the weekend...I did..there have been times when risk reward is good enough to do this...And last weeks action was perfect from every angle..We had those early week lows on Mon Tues, and then a retest, and then a pop up of very nice proportions Thursday into Friday setting up both the daily and weekly candle charts on most indexes to look good right here...
While we should pop in the am, I would trail up your stops, do not sell anything and let the market take you OUT OF THE TRADE...I have the first fibo upside on the SPX at 1003...the 20 ema daily..any break of 1010 would be a big time higher move for sure even if we do pullback for 2-3 days off this ballistic rally...Many Wall Street Gurus said the VOLUME JUST WAS NOT THERE?..Are they nuts!...1/2 of Wall Street was away..and we only had a 1/2 days trading?..what the hell did they want, 2 billion shares??? Unreal...Some times I just cannot understand how these people, licensed and all, have the right to say anything to anyone...Good grief Batman...
I can say that right NOW all this is, is a DCB(Dead Cat Bounce)..Meaning ya gotta show me the money pal...So before we short this thing and we will at some point..Let's see how high it goes, how it acts on the reversal back down, where it stops and reverses back up...I want to trade that reversal back up to the long side very HARD...I am very long here 5 stocks all of which were on my list Friday am...I'll trail stops up and let Mr. Market take me out of the game..then wait for a small pullback to rebuy into the coming rally...Everything depends on upcoming levels of a ton of indexes and chart patterns that I will report to you as needed..
But in all reality this pop meant nothing to the longer term indicators so far..we need BUY signals on P&F to get the charts working again, IF only for a short time before we collapse back down in late Sept Oct...Without doing TOO much speculating here folks...Think about the UPCOMING time frame from just before Sept 11th again this year, and earnings reports coming at the very same time..this could be a real crash and burn scenario going forward..you will not fight that trend of course..BTW we are not INVESTING here..not taking on new positions, no LEAPS till later this year...we'll re assess as we move thru this morass...
OK LET'S LOOK AT THE INDEXES AND INDICATORS..
ALL P&F INDICATORS ARE IN COLUMNS OF O'S BUT MOVING TOWARD VERY LOW LEVELS..BOTH THE NYSE & OTC OUR MAIN COACHES ARE MOVING DOWN...THE SHORT TERM INDICATORS THAT TURNED UP GOT KILLED ON THAT 2 DAY MASSACRE LAST WEEK ON MON/TUES..BUT..THEY ARE RIGHT THERE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AGAIN OF TURNING UP..
THE BP OF THE % ABOVE 10 IS READY TO REVERSE UP HERE...THAT'S STOCKS TRADING ABOVE THEIR 10 WEEK MOVING AVERAGES...
THE HI-LO INDEX STILL MOVING LOWER RIGHT HERE
THE BP FOR ALL OPTIONAL STOCKS IS STILL ABOUT 5% AWAY FROM A REVERSAL BACK UP...
SO THINGS ARE STILL LOOKING LOUSY FOR NOW...IT WILL TAKE MAJOR BUY SIGNALS ON STOCKS AND SECTORS AND RS'S TO TURN THIS BACK UP..CAN IT DO IT??? DO NOT KNOW YET...
DJIA---RALLIED RIGHT UP TO R(RESISTANCE) AT 9350...9450 IS A SPREAD TRIPLE TOP BREAKOUT 9600 THE TARGET...9200 REVERSES THIS INDEX BACK DOWN..BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF IT HOLDS AND REVERSES BACK UP..100 POINT CHART LOOKS THE SAME..BOTH THE DAILY AND WEEKLY CANDLE CHARTS LOOK NICE HERE..
NAZ/COMPX--ON THE DEFAULT CHART OF 50 POINTS PER BOX IT DID NOT REVERSE UP YET 1500 IS THAT REVERSAL BACK UP..ON THE 20 POINT CHART WHICH IS WHAT I USE NOW..SO FAR IT'S MADE A LOWER TOP AT 1440..AT 1480 THERE'S R THERE BUT 1500 IS THE BREAKOUT BUY...1380 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN...
SOX---ON THE 20 POINT DEFAULT CHART 420 IS THE 3BXRVUP...360 IS NOW HEAVY S(SUPPORT)...410 IS THE NICE BUY TRIGGER LONG HERE...WEEKLY SOX CHART LOOKS GOOD TOO..
SPX---JUST ANOTHER RALLY HERE..NOTHING SPECIAL SO FAR..REMEMBER, WE ARE DOING A BACKSIDE BOUNCE UP AND INTO OVERHEAD(O/H) R AT THE 20 EMA...FROM BELOW FOLKS...ON "ALL" INDEXES...AT 980 THIS WAS A LOWER TOP SO FAR...1003 THE DT AND 20 EMA...1010 IS A SWEET BIG TIME BREAKOUT THERE SET ALERTS..
I THINK WE'LL HIT THAT O/H R AT 1003 AREA AND PULLBACK SOME 25-30 POINTS BUT BOUNCE OFF THAT...IF WE CAN BREAK THRU 1003 THEN 1024 IS OUR NEXT TARGET...
NDX---A NICE RALLY BUT NO CEEGAR YET..1080 A NICE BUY TRIGGER THERE...IF BROKEN HERE SOON, 1140-60 IS MY TARGET..GOOD LOOKING WEEKLY TOO..
BTK---TERRIBLE CHART STILL VERY WEAK. 330 O/H R..360 IS BETTER..370 IS THE BREAKOUT BUY SIGNAL..
XAU---THIS CHART IS A NICE LOOKING SHORT CHART PATTERN..67 1ST TARGET, THEN 62 A SOLID BOTTOM AREA THERE...A PERFECT HARAMI ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF FRIDAYS NEGATIVE CANDLE...THE WEEKLY CHART OF THIS INDEX IS VERY NEGATIVE..
VXN---NOW THIS IS MORE LIKE IT...IN FACT THIS COULD BE A KILLER OF ALL THOSE SHORTS OUT THERE..I'LL BE TRACKING THIS INDEX EACH DAY WATCHING AND WAITING FOR MY SIGNALS...BOTH UP AND DOWN..RIGHT NOW IT BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOMN AT 56 AFTER MAKING A "LOWER" TOP AT 62...THIS INDEX IS NOW A SHORT ALL RALLY TYPE CHART PATTERN..BODES WELL FOR THE COMING NEXT 2-4 WEEKS...WATCH FOR 59 AS THE 3BXRV BACK UP AND "ANOTHER" LOWER TOP POSSIBILITY...AND THE ULTIMATE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 49 A SOLID TARGET FOR THE LONGS OUT THERE. IF IT WORKS OUT THIS WAY...ON THE WEEKLY CHART, DOUBLE DOSE OF DEADLY DOJI'S<VBG> OOOOHH YEAH!!!!<G>
VIX---WE CALLED THIS TRADE RIGHT IN THE ROOM..THE DOUBLE TOP AT 35 HEAVY R THERE..NEVER BROKE IT AND ROLLED OVER AND DOWN NICELY HERE...SO HERE' S THE STORY...29 IS S, 28 THE TRIPLE BOTTOM SELL SIGNAL..33 ANOTHER LOWER TOP..COMPRENDE'? WOULD LIKE TO SEE BOTH THESE INDEX PERFORM AS I THINK THEY WILL OVER THIS WEEK...
GC02--AUGUST GOLD FUTURES..READY TO BREAK YET ANOTHER BOTTOM AT 310..ON ANY MARKET RALLY THIS INDEX COULD SEE 295/300 VERY FAST..I WOULD SHORT ANY AND ALL RALLIES ON GOLD...ANYTHING TOWARD THE 315/318 AREA IS A NICE ENTRY TO SHORT "IF" IT EVEN GETS THERE...
OK LET'S DO OUR FAVORITE STOCKS WE KNOW AND LUV...THE MORE THE VOLATILITY THE BETTER WE DAYTRADERS LIKE IT<G>...
MSFT---AT THE TOP OF MY HEAP<G>..GOSH I LOVE THIS STOCK...HEAVY O/H R AT 55, BUT 56 IS A BIG PRINT HERE FOLKS...WE'LL TRAIL STOPS HERE..BUT THE BUY TRIGGER LONG(BTL) IS AT 55.25--THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER(SST)..53.90...HOLD THIS FOR THE POP..THEN SET STOPS..
INTU---HEY I'VE BEEN POUNDING THE TABLE TO EVERYONE I CAN TALK TOO ABOUT THIS ONE FOLKS..IF YOUR LONG SET STOPS AFTER THE GAP UP OPEN AND HOLD...51 THE BTL..AND A DOUBLE TOP(DT) BUY SIGNAL ON P&F...49.20 THE SST...
QLGC---LIKE I SAID A NICE POP COMING IN THIS STOCK...THE STREET LIKES TO TRADE IT...US TOO<G>..40 THE BTL..MUST WAIT FOR IT..THAT'S A DT BUY SIGNAL ON P&F TOO BOOT...38.80 THE SST...
VSEA---HOLY MOLEY BATMAN...GOSH WHAT A STOCK...A 30 BUCK STOCK THAT TRADE ALMOST 20% DURING THE DAY???..I WAS SHORT TWICE LAST WEEK AND NOW LONG..THEY ALREADY PRE ANNOUNCED BETTER EPS...STOCK HELD THAT GOOD DB(DOUBLE BOTTOM) AT 31...NEEDS A LOT OF OOOMPH TO GET UP AND OVER HEAVY R HERE...36.60 THE BTL...35 THE SST...
QCOM---IT'S HELD 25 3 TIMES AND IS READY TO BREAKOUT HERE...29.25 THE BTL..TRAIL UP YOUR STOPS..I'M ALREADY LONG...27.50 THE SST...29 IS A DT BUY SIGNAL ON P&F..
ERTS---THIS STOCK REALLY HAS A SHOT TO EXPLODE HERE..I DID NOT TAKE IT LONG ON FRIDAY ONLY CHOSE 5 STOCKS..OPTIONS WERE THE PLAY HERE FROM LAST WEEK...
"HERE'S WHAT I WROTE LAST WEEK"
ERTS---JUST A GREAT CHART HERE FOLKS..67 THE DOUBLE TOP BUY SIGNAL AND NEW 52 WEEK HIGH..SO 67.20 THE BTL...65.15 THE SST...YOU COULD USE THE AUGUST 65 CALLS FOR A NICE LEVERAGE PLAY...I WOULD WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE MARKETS BRING EARLY IN THE WEEK..
NOW HERE'S THIS WEEKS PLAY...THIS STOCK HELD THE BSL LINE AT ALL TIMES HERE ON THE WAY UP EVEN WITH SOME NEGATIVE NEWS FROM "OTHER" GAMING STOCKS...I WOULD BUY THIS HERE OR ON ANY PULLBACK..66.50 THE BTL..WITH A BREAK OVER 67 A BIG BIG BREAKOUT..SOME TIMES THIS KIND OF BREAKOUT PULLS BACK FIRST BEFORE EXPLODING UP...CHECK EARNINGS DATES PLEASE...64.50 THE SST...
ESST---RIGHT AT HEAVY R HERE..BUT..IF IT CAN BREAKOUT AHEAD OF RAISED EPS..THIS COULD BE NICE..MARKET WILLING OF COURSE...18.60 THE BTL...17 THE SST..
MERQ---IT'S DOING A DCB HERE SO FAR..ABOUT 27 IS THE 20 EMA DAILY...SELLERS SHOULD SHOW UP THERE..BUT IF YOUR IN THIS TRADE LONG FROM LAST WEEK...IT MAY MOVE UP ANOTHER 1-2 POINTS...26.25 THE BTL...24.25 THE SST...
KLAC---HELD THE 200 EMA WEEKLY HERE..NICE DOJI THERE...AND A BIG POP, ANOTHER EXCELLENT TRADER FOR US AND A FAV OF MINE..IT'S SOLID...TOUCHING THE 20 EMA RIGHT NOW...46.75 THE GOOD BTL...44.90 THE SST..
EBAY---BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM, AND HAS RALLIED UP HERE...NEEDS ALOT MORE TO BREAK OUT...61.25 THE BTL..AND MUST CLEAR 63...59.25 THE SST...57 THE 3BXRVDOWN..WATCHING..
EXPE--ANOTHER SHORTABLE BOUNCE?..EVERYONE SO FAR HAS BEEN ONE...58.40 THE BTL...56.25 THE SST..
BRCD..RIGHT AT R HERE AT THE BRL...IT'S NEVER BROKE THRU..IS THIS THE TIME?...18 THE BTL...19 THE DT BUY SIGNAL ON P&F...16.85 THE SST...
CCMP---IN A PERFECT TRIANGLE HERE...43 THE BTL...IF IT GETS ABOVE 45 THATS A NEW DT BUY THERE...41.25 THE SST...
CYMI---DCB HERE IS ALL FOR THE MOMENT..BUT TRADABLE MOST DAYS...34 THE BTL...32.20 THE SST..
OVER---ONE OF THE FEW INTERNET STOCKS CHARTS THAT LOOK OK HERE...IT'S IN A PERFECT RISING WEDGE/CHANNEL HERE ON THE DAILY...24.50 THE BTL...HEAVY R AT 26 THE BRL LINE..23.25 THE SST..
NVDA---THIS CHART IS AWFUL..STILL JUST A DCB SO FAR..AND PROBABLY A GOOD SS..19.50 THE BTL...18 THE SST...THIS STOCK IS VERY OVERBOUGHT ON THE DAILY WITH AN ADX AT 58+++..I'LL LOOK TO SS THIS ONE ON ANY RALLY UP...
IBM---OK WELL LEMME SEE HERE A SEC..THE RS JUST REVERSED UP HERE..HMMM..THEY WARNED THOUGH...HMMM
BUT THE CHART'S SHAPING UP...HMMM<G>...74.25 THE VERY GOOD BUY TRIGGER LONG..,AND DT BUY SIGNAL TOO..I'LL TAKE THAT TRADE...72.60 THE SST...THERE'S HEAVY R AT 73...AND 2 DOJI'S THERE...
DELL--MAKING ANOTHER LOWER TOP HERE AT 26?...26.75 THE BTL...24.90 THE SST..HEAVY O/H R AT 28...
NOK---GAVE 2 CONSECUTIVE BUY SIGNALS HERE...I OWN THE 2004 LEAPS..BUT WILL WAIT TO ADD IN OCT...NO RUSH AND ONLY OWN 3...15.50 THE BTL...14.50 THE SST...
GILD---JUST A DCB HERE FOLKS..LOOKS LIKE A NICE SS...OFF THAT TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAK ...31.75 THE BTL...30.10 THE SST..
IDPH---AMAZING RALLY UP OFF THAT BEARISH TRIANGLE BREAKDOWN RECENTLY AT 32..IT HIT 21 INTRADAY? HOLY COW!!!..ANYWAY IT LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL SS HERE...34 THE SST...36 THE BTL...
OK THAT'S IT FOR THIS NEWSLETTER..PLEASE STAY COOL HERE...THE SCENARIO IS AS FOLLOWS..TRAIL UP ALL LONGS HERE..LET THE MARKET TAKE YOU OUT OF OUR TRADES...MANY BEARS ARE STILL LOOKING FOR MORE CARNAGE SHORT TERM..I DON'T THINK SO..AND REMEMBER THIS IS ONLY A DCB HERE FOR ALL INDEXES UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES SOON...I DOUBT IT...SO IF WE TOUCH 1003 EXPECT SOME PULLBACK TO BUY..THEN IF WE BREAK 1010 SPX LOOK FOR A MUCH STRONGER RALLY TO ENSUE...NOW IF WE LOOK WEAK IN THE AM ON THE FUTURES JUST EXIT PRE MARKET IF YOU WISH AND REBUY AT LOWER NUMBERS DURING THE WEEK...DO NOT LET PROFITS ERODE..TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN...
BEST REGARDS
JER |
