Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host

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To: Boca_PETE who wrote (16321)	7/25/2002 9:42:36 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) of 42834

Tim Bagwell - I'd be stunned if he attempted to call a third CTR given previous more recent short term call results. Isn't he claiming to to call a counter trend rally with his MOABO/VEBO? After all, he says we are in a secular bear and he will try to make money with cyclical bull calls. A Secular bear means the market move lower even with the cyclical bulls... thus making the attempts to call them "counter trend events." I think his model flashing yellow and getting him to remove 65% from the market was great. When he risked up to 50% back in in October 2000 with his QQQ advice, it makes me think his model was saying we were not that far from a bottom so he'd risk his capital... Which makes me greatly suspect his ability to call bottoms. Past evidence says he is not good at it. Remember he called a bottom of a correction in 1998 at DJIA 8650 and we hit 7400... Then in 1988 he went to 100% cash and we were really only 10% off a bottom AFTER he missed the 30%, 1987 crash. The DJIA went up about 25 or 30% before he was back to fully invested, just before we got the gulf war bear market. He says he doesn't use TA so how did he make a CT call for QQQ? FA sure didn't say they were a buy... If he doesn't use FA and TA, then what is left? Magic? "Seat of the pants guess" or a desire to hedge where he has the QQQ off the books so he can brag on that if the market goes up or he can ignore if the market continues lower? The only conclusion I have been able to make is he is mostly entertainment. He has his Marketimer. Rosie and Oprah have their magazines. I wouldn't go to Oprah for advice on how to lose weight... but she sure talks about it a great deal. I do think his "risk management" by limiting how much he tossed into QQQs was good, but P1 under performs the S&P significantly with the QQQ and TEFQX off the books advice added back in which is what an aggressive growth portfolio should do. P2 got less QQQ and no TEFQX so it has fallen less than the S&P but it went up less on the way up. P3 with QQQ is greatly under performing a 50:50 total bond - Total Stock Market balanced buy n hold portfolio since 12/31/99. Kirk Kirk

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