3rd Q will be slower than 2nd Q for chips and equips. We have had many confirmations. The durable goods is negative, but the unemployment and housing are positive.
ALTR, XLNX, LLTC, NVLS are all below the bottom of my buy ranges.
TSMC was explained mostly by an XBOX slowdown for NVDA chips. Part industry, part company specific competitive issues.
Answer to your question. Look at 2 times book for AMAT, KLAC, NVLS. At that price, "mother of all buying opps".
I don't think a secular bear, 16 years or less, is at all relevant to the semis and semi-equips and probably not to the economy. The engine that drove the expansion from '82 is still revving up. We are dealing with the bubble aftermath and tech business is still slow. Market psychology is terrible because there is danger of business failures from the bubble and there is no confidence in the integrity of management.
I just checked real time quotes. This is turning out to be grim. I would be happy to buy here, but, unfortunately, I was happy to buy higher. |
