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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc
ATHM 22.04-4.0%Jan 30 9:30 AM EST
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To: Marco Polo who wrote ()7/17/1997 1:13:00 AM
From: Hubert Chen   of 29970
 
Valuation: I think trying to value this stock is an almost total crapshoot because there are too many unknowns. I read somewhere that their goal is to reach %1 of the 44M cable TV subscribers in two years. at roughly $40/month, that translates into revenues of $192M. This is a long term proposition, right now nothing can be said for sure. I'd say right now $10 is as good a price guess as $35. So buying this stock for anything less than a 2-4 year time frame is purely speculative in my opinion. Comparisons to Netscape. This will definitely not be the next Netscape, because it requires way too much infrastructure to accelerate revenues quickly. Netscape can sell 1M copies of Navigator or 100k copies of their Commerce server in a day. It's impossible to set up shop that quickly for a hardware and service company. Shorting. It will take some time for the stock to propogate out to the secondary market, before you can short it. Probably a couple of weeks I think. I think Rambus is a better candidate for shorting right now. If you build it, will they come? It's unclear whether the content on the net is worth paying $40/month for. I would buy one, but I'm on the net more than the most. But for the average consumer I can't say that what's on the net is really compelling.
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