Well..... so my ranting all year long that something is wrong is rubbing off? LOL!
LOL... well, I think where I disagree with you is where the inflection point is for "doing good" vs. "doing bad" in software. I've been through at least 2 of these mini-draughts in software - oracle couldn't sell to their own mother in 1997 and then we had the late 98/99 y2k related supply chain software mini-crash. That was when sebl hit 7.50/sh, people thought the collaborative apps were going to put sebl,psft out of business. This is fundamentals. So when I see sebl doing 170mm in license revenue, I don't think its that bad.
The difference is then, other sectors in the stock market were performing, it was a great bull. And I've never seen in my professional life a real estate decline like what is upon us here. I know, I know it isn't showing up in the stats, and this is bay area only. But house prices are going down hard I can tell. And also, there were a whole lot of jobs that emerged in the 90s in tech that probably shouldn't have ever happened. For example IT staff, managers of helpdesks things like that making 90K. Thats too much. This whole group is being readjusted. All this is just happening this year. Last year a lot of people lost their jobs but people thought it was just temporary, things would return. I agree things will return for engineers and the highly skilled jobs but a lot of the midrange stuff is just going to go away and those people aren't going to be able to pay these high mortgages.
OK- end of rant. Hope software rallies tomorrow, I wanna to to LV this weekend, bet its hot though.
L |
