Well, well, well.
I don't know if it makes any difference in this market, but I have to say that after listening to the CC I am quite satisfied with my 2.11's and have decided to postpone the Execution of a certain Bean Counting NiceGuy for one more Quarter. <Hoo>
A CC like this in 98 or 99 would easily have produced a $4 pop in the share price, but as it stands now I just don't know what to expect. In any case, here are my CC Highlights:
1. If there is one thing we DO NOT have to worry about its wild eyed "speculation" on future prospects by management. At one point Staunton mentioned the fact that they intend to grow the business by the hard work of drumming up customers and designing value added products rather than to rely on the "analysts" to do it for them. Talk about understatements. <Hoo Hoo>
Staunton sounds like he's working his tail off. I'll wager he spends nearly as much time on the road with customers and potential customers as he does at home.
2. FRAM seems to be reaching critical mass in Legendary EE mind-share. Of the four meter test programs currently being run in China, FRAM is being used by each of the meter firms in the design off. No matter who wins the designs RMTR will be there. Staunton also recounted a statement by a Black Box maker for the automotive market who said a car maker was insisting on a redesign of the product to include FRAM chips. But the most important clue to the degree of attention being given to FRAM really came from the numbers.
They sold about 2.5 million units into the Ampy/Enel programs for meter use, but including 850,000 units sold by the two distributors, the non Ampy/Enel units sold totaled over 2.18 million! And most of these sales were pre-production orders. For those needing a translation of this "Stauntonese" <vbg> RMTR has design wins flowing from the Great WHAZOO that it doesn't bother to mention unless they start ramping production, and then only if that production meets some unspecified standard of materiality.
He "accidently" let slip a name of one of the OEM's competing in the China meter tests, but obviously if you're just buying a "few" thousand lots of these things for pre-production "testing" you don't get to make THE BIG LIST of CC named "customers." <Hoo Hoo>
I have seen this conservative approach to PR for a year now and frankly I have to say I like it. Seems to me that it's the only way us Mom & Pop's get a fair shot at buying into a company at reasonable prices. Not to mention the fact that it makes for a lot less heartburn when expectations don't match the PR. ...Did someone mention "Hitachi?" ...Naaaaaaaah, this CC was not for the glad handers. <g>
3. In any case, you must listen to the CC. But read Staunton's prepared remarks on the web site:
ramtron.com
Then cut to the Q & A starting about two thirds of the way into the replay:
corporate-ir.net
[This link doesn't seem to be working now but I assume that CCBN will get it straightened out soon]
If I subtract the "Numerology" business, I get the clear impression that we know as much about this company's business and products than these Analysts do. There were zip questions on Fujitsu's monthly wafer output. Staunton indicated in response to one Q, that they have a couple of other large customers besides RMTR. But nobody seemed concerned about the low defect rates they must be getting to produce so many chip sales out of 2500 wafers a month; or what their current rate was; or whether the other large Fujitsu customers have wafer allocations; or why the royalty rate appears to be decreasing.
The real shocker was how they let Staunton get off so easy on disclosing nothing about the TI deal. I mean come on. They could at least have inquired as to the public statements by TI concerning relative production costs for FRAM compared to other memory technologies below 0.10. Heck they could have forced him to say something by asking if the March TI patent wasn't the "Holy Grail" of ferro and thin film production. At least they'd find out if he was even aware of the patent. <Hoo Hoo>
Any Hoo, I get the strong impression that the market and its analysts may be playing a more conservative game. There is certainly less pump, but I don't think they're capable of replacing the old "pump" with better research. I would not be surprised if the analysts who spoke have never called TI to ask them about RMTR or the quality of their engineers or anything else that wasn't specifically needed for their Numerological Modeling. There wasn't even a single reference to the dedicated fab issue that I can recall. <Hoo Hoo>
Unless these guys were playing "possum" with me, the MoMo's who pay these analysts will not be out there bidding up the prices this Qtr. We'll know for sure soon enough. But I'm willing to bet that they are still being driven buy the same things they always were. If we had cleared a 0.03 profit, it wouldn't matter much. They would smile; say "Great Quarter Guys;" and then ask, "But can you give us some visibility on the ASP for the new XMb units?" <Hoo Haa Hoo>
The MoMo's will move en mass when and if they hear that an MU or INTC take a production license. And they'll move if they hear that a NEC, Hitachi, IFX/Infineon start producing for a major market. ...But barring such events we're going to see RMTR, its IP and its share price gradually grow until one day we'll look up and we'll be owners of another IRF! <Hoo Hoo>
It may take a year or two to get there. But on the bright side...
MY Buck Seventy Fives are still in play!!!
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