Nice post, Allan. I am getting less bearish as you get more bearish. That worries me about my timing!
Mind you, I'm still bearish for the moment, particularly in tech. Still, in non-tech too, frankly, I still think that if a new low is to come, it needs to do so soon. . .before the VIX really reverses and the like. Tomorrow's COT report will be interesting -- if the commercials hadn't covered at all on the journey down to 800, I'll probably concede that an IT low hasn't been placed. Anyway, if there is a "surprise ending" I'd expect it within week(s) rather than months.
In case none of you were ever clownish (or converted earlier). . . I would also add that as a former clown (man, I hope I'm a former clown!!!), shorting at the end of a decline is very common. And at first, it does work!!! Then, the market reverses, and you wait for that first up to come, and you whack the market again cuz you're so damn savvy. Then it keeps going up slowly enough that you don't cover (or so fast that you're sure it'll come back). We might just be in the "clowns are shorting and getting away with it" part. (EDITOR'S NOTE: Freep has been short long enough now that the fact that he still has some shorts and puts is NOT indicative of "late arriving clown shorting. He's insecure about this, so I thought I better cover that topic.) If we really are there, then you're right we'll get new lows here. If we're in the latter part of the "new short experience" then we're done. Now, if only there was a way to quantify. . . .
the freep |
