<<The latest collapse in gold and gold stocks is the final chapter in the Bear Market>>
J.T. ... I do not understand the logic of your view that the end of the bear is near or just around the corner ... you have posted many individual positive articles on the economy ... and I have read them, and many others I have found ... but the bullish story for both the economy and the stock market does not hit home with me overall ...
... it seems to me that technicals, at times, have little if any predictive value ... in my view, it is the trend that is important in this equity and economic cycle ... and the trend is still down ...
... we should have some significant rallies along the way, but I would not view even a 30% rally in the next two months as a strong sign of anything other than a probable bear market rally ... though I would surely trade a big rally like that ...
... I continue to see much stronger evidence in the macroeconomic picture that the worst for the US and world economy will not arrive until early 2003, and could easily extend into 2004 ...
... in my opinion, unresolved personal and corporate debt issues, banking issues, corporate pension funding, a continuing drop in consumer confidence, a further slump in consumer spending, the coming break in the last great asset class - housing ... all of this, plus deflation, a lack of corporate pricing power ... a likely jump in personal savings ...
... and unfortunately, the general public is not very much aware of any of this ... so if domestic equity fund outflows accelerate, as they have been doing in June and July, equities will continue to be in trouble ...
... hey, what a sense of humor I have today ... <g>
... beautiful cool New England late-summer-early-fall day here in coastal New England ... hope you and family are well, J.T. ...
Ken |
