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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: Softechie who wrote (13823)7/27/2002 12:49:30 AM
From: J.T.  Read Replies (2) of 19219
 
Great post. Here is what resonates with me:

1)The broad consensus is that a dramatic low or collapse of confidence is
needed before the market is ready to resume an upward course following a deep
bear market.

Notice now the consensus thinks we need to go lower.

2)The pandemonium school tends towards the view that the heavy declines of the
past couple of months qualify as capitulation.

Todays action over the last several months very similar to 1974 chinese water torture... week after week relentless selling.

3)"Capitulation is when no one's interested in calling a bottom," said Tony
Dye, a well-known value investor and head of hedge fund firm Dye Asset
Management.

I don't see people trying to call the bottom today like they did a month or two ago and I was as guilty as the next trader in this fiasco. Now more are asking how much lower do we have to go.

4)Most investors agree that considerable value is found when the bottom is
reached, and many are finding it right now.

This is the most important message of the report - There is considerable value to be had NOW in the right stocks of the new bull market.

5)The post-apocalyptic camp doesn't hold out much near-term hope for the
markets. But the pandemonium school isn't convinced it's seen capitulation just
yet. Which suggests the bear isn't dead - just napping.

Both camps say lower still?? And yet...

...the pandemonium school predicts a big rally following a heavy fall...

Is it possible that the rally has already commenced???

Best Regards, J.T.
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