9-month cycle
With this week's low, I've refined the scenario for the low falling on the week of July 26
to the Tuesday the 23rd. Since the closing low on Tuesday and the intraday low on Wednesday
were fairly close, I've opted for Tuesday the 23rd as the base for the next cycle. I'll
keep monitoring both scenarios as they seem to have some cyclical overlap. August 14/15 is
the next phase change in both scenarios. For the first schedule, it's the top of the ten-week
cycle. For the second, the date marks the end of the strongest part of the 10-week cycle.
This would tend to indicate the 5-8 trading days leading up to the date to be strong.
Alternate 1: 10-, 20-, and 40-week cycles fixed with base at Sep 21 low
cycle tendencies
10-week 20-week 40-week SPX change high low range
Sep 21 start start start 965 none
Oct 16 green green green 1097 +132 1101 +136 N.A. N.A.
Nov 7 yellow green green 1115 + 18 1126 + 29 1052 - 42 74
Nov 30 red yellow green 1139 + 24 1163 + 48 1054 - 61 109
Dec 26 green yellow green 1149 + 10 1173 + 34 1114 - 25 59
Jan 16 yellow red yellow 1127 - 22 1177 + 28 1127 - 22 50
Feb 8 red red yellow 1096 - 31 1139 + 12 1078 - 49 61
Mar 5 green green yellow 1146 + 50 1157 + 61 1074 - 22 83
Mar 28 yellow green yellow 1147 + 1 1173 + 27 1131 - 15 42
Apr 19 red yellow red 1125 - 22 1148 + 1 1099 - 48 49
May 14 green yellow red 1096 - 29 1125 NC 1049 - 76 76
Jun 6 yellow red red 1029 - 67 1106 + 10 1027 - 69 79
Jun 28 red red red 990 - 39 1033 + 4 953 - 76 80
Jul 23 green green green 798 -198 994 + 4 796 -194 198
Aug 14 yellow green green 853 + 55 854 + 56 775 - 23 79
Sep 6 red yellow green
Oct 1 green yellow green
Oct 24 yellow red yellow
Nov 15 red red yellow
Dec 10 green green yellow
Jan 2 yellow green yellow
Jan 24 red yellow red
Feb 18 green yellow red
Mar 13 yellow red red
Apr 4 red red red
Alternate 2: 10-, 20-, and 40-week cycles lows at Sep 21 and Jul 23
cycle tendencies
10-week 20-week 40-week SPX change high low range
Sep 21 start start start 965 none
Oct 16 green green green 1097 +132 1101 +136 N.A. N.A.
Nov 7 yellow green green 1115 + 18 1126 + 29 1052 - 42 74
Nov 30 red yellow green 1139 + 24 1163 + 48 1054 - 61 109
Dec 26 green yellow green 1149 + 10 1173 + 34 1114 - 25 59
Jan 16 yellow red yellow 1127 - 22 1177 + 28 1127 - 22 50
Feb 8 red red yellow 1096 - 31 1139 + 12 1078 - 49 61
Mar 5 green green yellow 1146 + 50 1157 + 61 1074 - 22 83
Mar 28 yellow green yellow 1147 + 1 1173 + 27 1131 - 15 42
Apr 19 red yellow red 1125 - 22 1148 + 1 1099 - 48 49
May 14 green yellow red 1096 - 29 1125 NC 1049 - 76 76
Jun 6 yellow red red 1029 - 67 1106 + 10 1027 - 69 79
Jun 28 red red red 990 - 39 1033 + 4 953 - 76 80
Jul 23 --- --- --- 798 -198 994 + 4 796 -194 198
Aug 15 green green green 853 + 55 854 + 56 775 - 23 79
Sep 9 yellow green green
Oct 1 red yellow green
Oct 24 green yellow green
Nov 18 yellow red yellow
Dec 10 red red yellow
Jan 2 green green yellow
Jan 27 yellow green yellow
Feb 18 red yellow red
Mar 13 green yellow red
Apr 7 yellow red red
Apr 29 red red red
22-week cycle
Sep 21 SPX trough 966 (week 1)
Dec 7 midpoint SPX crest 1158 (week 11)
Jan 4 actual SPX crest 1176 (week 15)
Feb 22 SPX trough 1090 (week 22)
Mar 22 actual SPX crest 1174 (week 4)
May 10 midpoint SPX crest 1055 (week 11)
Jul 26 SPX trough 853 (week 22)
Oct 11 midpoint SPX crest
Dec 27 SPX trough
26-week Dow cycle troughs
Oct 9, 98 Dow 7379
Apr 9, 99 Dow 9826 length 26 weeks
Oct 22, 99 Dow 9884 length 28 weeks
Mar 10, 00 Dow 9611 length 20 weeks
Oct 20, 00 Dow 9571 length 32 weeks
Mar 23, 01 Dow 9106 length 22 weeks
Sep 21, 01 Dow 8062 length 26 weeks
Feb 8, 02 Dow 9580 length 20 weeks
Jul 24, 02 Dow 7532 length 24 weeks
sample size 8
total 200 weeks
average 25 weeks
st dev 2 weeks
next approximate Dow trough
Jun 28, 02 20 weeks minimum length in sample
Aug 2, 02 25 weeks average length in sample
Aug 16, 02 27 weeks average + 1 s.d.
Aug 30, 02 29 weeks average + 2 s.d.
Dec 10, 02 20 weeks minimum length in sample
Jan 14, 03 25 weeks average length in sample |
