james....i'm watching real close and more or less targeting the penny golds or the ones that are closing in on old gaps from a few months ago.....
for golds to rise again.....you have to bet on some real powerful players are about to get toasted....and they will do everything possible to avoid that.....
so the risk is still high.....
but.....the retrace shows there is much more carnage to come....the dow-gold ratio chart shows more carnage.....history says theres more carnage to come...
so....just being a little guy here....and using history as a guide.....it sure looks like big money that held gold down for years has a strong chance of getting toasted here..
the only question is....how long can they delay the inevitable......
just looking at charts.....i figure if gold has a strong run for a few years going forward....it likely will come off some big long term support like a big old double bottom or something.....
on the xau chart.....if it stops dropping right here....it could make a very big inverted H&S pattern at 48...41...and if it stays higher than 48 here on this drop....
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d19950727,20020727][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Le5,10,1!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lo15]&pref=G
very few folks would identify that pattern and miss it....
or it could make a big double bottom at 41 and then resume up.....
so i'm watching for that....
just looking back at the nasdaq bull run...you can see a huge drop right before the bull really took off.....see it here at 2028 and the drop to 1357.....that looks like whats happening in gold now.....
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d19960727,20020727][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Le5,10,1!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lo15]&pref=G
how many folks bailed on tech there and missed the huge run after....on the big picture chart....it just looks like a big ole headfake......that might be happening in golds right now.....
they say to beat wallstreet...you have to think like a crook....
isn't this the perfect setup.....tear down gold stocks as the dow and nasdaq bottomed.....that forces investors out of golds and back into what history says will be a doomed market.....and already they ramped the dow near 800 pts real fast.....and the real bottom is likely under 6000...so folks are already forced to "buy high".....and the nasdaq has limited upside....so folks running back to tech will only get a small rise here....and there are already many bagholders up at 1330-1400 who will be lucky to break even....and folks will be pouring money all the way up now.....
then when the dump to 1000 happens....they are screwed....but they won't give up till 1200 breaks or dow 7500.....but by that time gold stocks should be already going up.....so as the masses panic out of tech again....they try and dog pile back in gold.....but they are now chasing a rising market again and paying high prices in golds....
big money gets to buy up the cheap golds here as folks are distracted dog piling back into the dow and nasdaq.....big money gets to dump the last of what they got to future bagholders....and sell their cheap golds much higher up as the masses realize the bear market is not over.....
anyway.....if the retrace does go all the way down like history suggest.....the scenario i just talked about out is likely what is happening now.....
if this is the bottom in the nasdaq and dow......well....like rosanne rosanne-a-dana would say...
never mind.....<ggg>
but right now the retrace has yet to fail......so thats what i stick with....if the retrace fails....or the dow and nasdaq just go sideways or do a nikkei type death....gold may already of had its big run.....and just trade in a range also.....then everything would suck...<gg>
for the retrace to fail....nasdaq has to get over that bagholder zone at 1330-1350 and a major t-q top at 1459....and tons of resistance in between.....plus the big H&S pattern on the SPX has to be negated.....
so as of of friday's close.....this is still a major bear market....folks are dog piling in what they think is a major bottom.....and big money is helping them make that decision to pile back in tech by showing them gold is no safe place to hide.....
so if big money is funneling the herd back into the dow and tech....that sure isn't the safe place to be....
its what big money is trying to get the herd out of...thats where i want to look.....<ggg> |
