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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 309.40+1.0%Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (4353)7/28/2002 1:21:21 PM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (1) of 95530
 
My guess is that we could see lows never thought possible even a few months ago. We are not seeing flight to quality, we simply seeing flight everywhere. The discounting of the future of this sector continues unabated and there are still plenty of people who point out the very high forward PEs in the sector. This is a lethal combination. We have seen the guidance in the sector become more moderate for most companies and down right awful for others. The drivers of demand, wireless, PCs, networking, and information technology upgrades have been slow to recover and we are on the same treadmill we've been on for 8 or so quarters where we continue to get the exact same comments: the recovery will start in the 2nd half of the next fiscal year.

Instead of guessing where bottoms may occur, I think it's wisest in the current market environment to let the trends dictate one's actions. Stops should be a critical part of the trading strategy here, whether shorting with the trend or trying to predict the bounce/bottoming of a given stock.
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