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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's
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To: ajtj99 who wrote (4299)7/28/2002 5:42:43 PM
From: 16yearcycle  Read Replies (1) of 30712
 
ajtj,

The more I look at that retrace, the more I would guess that the drop after the rally back to 1400, would be the final one. ~1000 was around for quite awhile, and may well be the final destination. It makes sense from a seasonal standpoint, ie, we would theoretically see 1000 by the falls end, and start the move to 1250 by year end as you say. A "long term" low in the fall of the 2nd year of a presidential cycle is rarely breached, nor is a low in the 2nd year of the decade.(This held true even in the 20's 30's and 40's.) By the beginning of 2003, we MAY disconnect from the retrace. Do you see that as a small chance?
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