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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: rolatzi who wrote (47883)	7/28/2002 5:55:47 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) of 209892

rol -- couple of comments, FWIW. 1. US stocks better than Europe?? -- maybe when you don't consider currency xlation?? 2. The US economy's aggregates look good only if you are half-blind, i.e. GDP only looks good if you forget a good deal of it is government spending. 3. Already been said and you know it: J6P has been tapping more and more credit to finance his appetites for new toys. Try this: next time you are on the road around you neighborhood try to roughly guess the % of cars older than 5 years ... That said -- I think you make a very good pt -- the world's economy has devolved to a pt that the US dollar versus something else -- not another fiat currency, is the question. Haim keeps telling me things in Euroland aren't that grand as far as aggregates go -- that's all well and good -- but they are not embarking on an historic increase in fiscal stimulus -- the balance sheets of individuals aren't as shot to heck as ours are. For me it all boils down to this: The US government will not accept a second dip -- simply will not accept it -- this means an accelaration of easy money and fiscal stimulus. What happens when the only game in town, no longer works? Gold, IMHO, isn't even necessarily about "price" inflation -- it is an insurance policy agaisnt the complete loss of confidence in economic policy makers. Such confidence -- how many times have we read that word -- (and it is not the foundation of stocks prices and it's not the problem -- lack of a foundation for profits going-forward are) -- has not been destroyed, but when destroyed will be very hard to restore. I think it will show itself first in a collapse in equities, then repatriation -- not because folks abroad can necessarily make better investments locally, simply because they no longer desire to have all eggs in the ONE-WAY bet that they have made up until now. I don't know if gold is still in a bull market, my own inclination is to buy more of the real stuff as a reasonable part of a large cash balance.

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