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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 309.36+2.2%Dec 3 4:00 PM EST
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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (4364)7/28/2002 7:29:16 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh  Read Replies (1) of 95520
 
Brian, it is different this time:

1. No previous cycle had the demand problems the industry is now experiencing.

2. There is a real lack of tangible product cycles to drive demand.

3. Industry is to some extent a victim of its own success. 300mm fabs add capacity at a lower cost per unit of output. This productivity gain means a lower % of chip sale revenues needed for equipment.

4. Above factors mean lower long term growth rate for equipment companies and lower earnings multiples.

Industries change as they mature. There is no reason to think the SCE industry is different.
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