P&S and STO Death Blow's Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's

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To: ajtj99 who wrote (4299)	7/28/2002 7:57:11 PM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (2) of 30712

well.....since we hit that 1190 area so perfect on the retrace.....just for fun....i went out and looked again at the 30's charts and what happened after the real bottom hit..... this gets interesting..... heres the 30's chart again.... sharelynx.net when the real bottom hit.....the first bounce up was violent....near a double....then about 6 months later came down for a retest and made a higher low.....and from that point doubled again from 50 to over 100..... ok....now remember that..... we have t-q major tops at 1459.....and 1650...... now if the real bottom in nasdaq hits and bounces like the dow did.....that puts that 1459 t-q top in play.....half of that is say 730 area.....that could be your bottom..... heres the retrace chart again from the projected end of year top at 1250 area..... stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d19940728,19960728][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Le5,10,1!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lo15]&pref=G note the 710 bottom after a long decline.....it sure fits the 1459 t-q top and the dow doing near a double off its real bottom..... better yet.....remember the dow then came back down and made a higher low.....then doubled again..... ok....that brings into play the next t-q top at 1650.....half of that is 825..... well....your real bottom is around 710.....so the nasdaq then comes back down like the dow to make a higher low also....and there it is...825..... those t-q tops are your guide to the real bottoms..... better yet.....the next major t-q top was 3500..... now look at this 30's chart..... sharelynx.net after dow made that higher low and doubled again....thats the 100 area.....it doubled again a few years later to near 200..... that equates to nasdaq going from the 1650 t-q top to say 3300 area or so.....so that puts nasdaq back at 3000 by the year 2007-8 area..... so to sum it up....if the retrace and aftermath follow the dow 30's scenario..... we get near a 1000 bottom around october....run back to 1250 area to end the year..... the killing field starts next year as nasdaq goes from 1250 to 710 by say april.....runs up to near 1400....but starts right back down again in the fall of 2003 for a retest of that 710 bottom.....but makes a higher low at 825.....and runs to near 1650 by 2005.....and from 2005 to say 2008....steadily heads to near 3300.... but since dow didn't get back to its bubble top for near 25 years..... the nasdaq likely trades between 1650 and 3300 for a decade or more..... this little scenario was made because the retrace is still working to perfection.....until the retrace fails.....this is the path history suggest.....and amazingly enough...the t-q tops that were set in place fit perfect...maybe thats why they turned out to be major tops.....<ggg> you can see however.....this won't ever be a boring market for traders......for investors...its a different story.... for traders long and short.....sharpen your t/a skills....you will need them in the years ahead more than ever.....

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