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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Steve Lee who started this subject7/29/2002 12:10:57 AM
From: Psycho-Social  Read Replies (2) of 99280
 
Stock Fund Flows: I've been following $ flows into and out of stock funds for fifteen years, and they've been probably the best contrarian indicator over those years. The lead time has shortened a bit over the years as weekly data became available and more widely followed. The best month ever: +$53.5 billion in February 2000. As with any contarian indicator, the ultimate peaks and troughs are only obvious after the fact, but I think we're going to show a $45 billion or greater outflow for July. At that point risk/reward says buy or stay invested.
Two caveats: It doesn't guarantee that a new bull market is starting, just that an intermediate term advance is close at hand. Second, it doesn't guarantee that the Nasdaq will participate fully in the coming advance. Since no credible experts are advising long term investors to put $ into Nasdaq stocks, the impetus for a sustained Nasdaq advance seems lacking.
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