Timba: I envy your TYC success. I bought in at 45 well before the blow-up started...enjoyed some initial success into the mid-50's then made the huge mistake of sticking with it fighting the market on the way down. While it's never been much over a 1% position, it's sufficiently underwater that the best I'll do is cut my losses. I've had several [ELN, DYN, WMB] where, despite entering after substantial sell-offs, I severely underestimated how low they could go. One of the problems with a value orientation is that they look like better deals as the price declines, but sometimes, as the technicians claim, the market forecasts the fundamentals...it's not Mr. Market getting depressed and selling cheap, it's Mr Market saying 'The wolf's at the door, you better run.'
So there are times when the courage to act on an apparent value opportunity can be more a curse than a blessing. A bear market, as Jim Clarke was alluding to in his reference to the Grantham peice, is one of those times. |
