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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: John Pitera who wrote (6668)7/30/2002 3:30:32 PM
From: Yorikke  Read Replies (2) of 33421
 
~Morgan, here's an interesting perspective from a group of scholars that has been fairly accurate in its past assessments of the direction of the economy.

The Strategic Prospects and Policies for The U.S. Economy
Strategic Analysis, June 2002 (revised from April)
by Wynne Godley and Alex Izurieta

During the main period of economic expansion, the fiscal stance
tightened at rapid pace, and net export demand progressively
deteriorated to record deficit levels. The expansion of aggregate
demand therefore had been driven by a similarly unprecedented
expansion of private expenditure relative to income, financed by
growing injections of net credit, which caused the indebtedness
of the nonfinancial private sector to escalate to unprecedented
levels. The conclusion drawn was that this process must come to
an end at some stage, and that when it did, the entire stance of
fiscal policy would have to move in an expansionary direction,
and that for economic growth to be sustained indefinitely, net
export demand would have to recover as well.

The United States should now be prepared for one of the deepest
and most intractable recessions of the post–World War II period,
with no natural process of recovery in prospect unless a large and
complex reorientation of policy occurs both here and in the rest of
the world.

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