Tom,
FWIW, I have a couple of suggestions that may allow you to reduce the risk associated with your UOPIX position. As long as the secular trend on the N100 is down, your 70% UOPIX position is especially vulnerable.
It is simple enough to "hedge" your UOPIX position with some USPIX. Use your IW to determine the relative weight between UOPIX/USPIX. I use VIX for the same purpose because it gives intraday volatility...and with the wild intraday swings we've had recently!!
Anyway, at low risk, overweight UOPIX, and reduce USPIX. And as the risk metric returns to high risk, take some of your profits in UOPIX and buy additional USPIX.
I have to admit, the returns on this method are not as exciting as correctly "guessing" the direction of the N100. At the same time, guessing is no longer important. If the market goes up, I make some money...if the market goes down, I make some money. Not great amounts, but fairly consistent.
Regards,
Dave |
