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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 166.37+4.4%Nov 10 3:59 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10554)7/31/2002 9:22:14 AM
From: Jim Willie CB   of 10921
 
economists remain consistent: wrong by 120% in Q2 GDP
once again providing continued evidence of my claims
the profession is politicized, uses faulty assumptions routinely

marketwatch.com

same old same old
economist consensus for Q2 was 2.4%, with actual at 1.1%
very typical
I have said 1000 times on these threads
economists are the worst practicing statisticians among a dozen types
it is amazing that so many people pay attention to what they have to say

revision for Q1 was from 6% to 5%
worse still, much of the 5% was from govt spending on war materiel and airport security systems
try that in real business and you get fired within a year

CAN ANYONE SAY "DOUBLE DIP RECESSION?
next we get the falloff from wealth effect reduction in consumer spending
which has been improperly minimized for the last few months
as Stanford's Tversky reported 30 years ago, the "asymmetric wealth effect" hits much harder with losses than gains

so we have the idiotic press/media trying to tell us now two ridiculously incorrect things now:
1. the stock market will CATCH UP to the economy
(they have yet to learn that stocks are a leading discounter)
2. the wealth loss effect will be inconsequential
(spending will be considerably lower than rosey "forecasts")

I say both are wrong
expect job loss announcements in the next several weeks to accelerate
just when more bankruptcies are announced
and probably when shareholder lawsuits pick up in earnest

/ jim
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