SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: tonka552000 who wrote (3564)7/31/2002 12:33:38 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 89467
 
I believe trade gap data arrives faster than GDP
the June current account deficit data came in over a week ago
May was greater than April, and June was greater than May
so the trade gap is widening despite the US econ slowdown
the current account deficit is the sum of the import/export delta plus the investment delta (e.g. acquisitions)

it must be easier to tally incoming and outgoing dollars at the borders from import/ export

since US GDP involves great complexity and vast data, it takes much longer to calculate
they also have deflator indexes to handle price inflation
so much more complex

I think the two are calculated independently, separately
but in general if GDP slows, then trade gap can drop
but not if foreign economies slow down also

I have predicted steadily that the lower USdollar WILL NOT end up reducing the trade gap
since a declining dollar seriously hurts foreign economies
case in point...
as the dollar rises, Japan Nikkei suffers, since they have an export-based economy inhibited by a rising jyen
the Japanese Govt fights tooth & nail to stop the jyen appreciation with BoJ intervention
as the dollar rises, even European bourses suffer, since they run a slight trade surplus

my point is simple
the entire world economy is GEARED toward a cheaper local currency versus the dollar

as the dollar declines, IT DISRUPTS THE ENTIRE WORLD ECONOMY
and shatters Asian banks, PERIOD
/ jim
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News