from the national post re Saudi Arabia...
U.S. fears downfall of Saudi regime
Link to Canadian case: Royal family faces emboldened enemy
Michael Petrou
National Post
Wednesday, July 31, 2002
Crown Prince Abdullah
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Islamic extremists are threatening to take control of Saudi Arabia's corrupt and autocratic regime, fuelling fears in Washington that the United States might lose its most powerful Muslim ally in the war against Islamic terrorism.
Despite brutal suppression of any public dissent, anti-government demonstrations have swept the kingdom in recent months to protest the pro-American stance of Crown Prince Abdullah, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler.
Public opposition to the regime is so widespread, the Pentagon has reportedly sponsored a secret conference to look at options should the royal family fall.
Dissent is also fermenting within the ruling House of Saud.
Prince Sultan, the Defence Minister, has openly criticized Crown Prince Abdullah's pro-Western policies, and other anti-Abdullah factions in the government have reportedly colluded with Islamic extremists in a wave of bomb attacks against Western targets.
According to the British newspaper The Observer, Saudi sources have confirmed that the bombings, for which Canadian Bill Sampson has been sentenced to death, were in fact carried out by Islamists linked to al-Qaeda.
Analysts say implications for the United States should the Saudi regime change or dramatically shift its policy are severe.
''The Saudis hold the key to whether the United States wins or loses the war on Islamic militants,'' said Steven Emerson, executive director of the Investigative Project, a Washington-based counterterrorism institute.
''Most of the monies for Islamic militants are generated from Saudi Arabia. They could shut them down if they wanted to, or open up the faucet even more.''
The House of Saud funds madrassas and Muslim schools across the world. Many of these preach an extreme and intolerant brand of Wahhabi Islam.
James Reilly, a history professor at the University of Toronto, notes that the modern Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is founded on an 18th-century alliance between the Wahhabi religious movement and the House of Saud.
''The Wahhabi doctrine is the legitimizing ideology of the Saudi family. It has been an important factor in the legitimizing ideology of the Saudi state. And it has been a trademark of the extension of Saudi influence among Muslim communities and countries elsewhere,'' he said.
Wahhabi Islam is still a potent force in Saudi Arabia.
According to Mr. Emerson, the ruling family aligns itself with the movement to the extent that is necessary to remain in power.
''What you see is a more pragmatic willingness to appease the bad guys by family members,'' he said.
''That's the way they bend.''
Mr. Emerson said it is unlikely the House of Saud will be overthrown by Islamic extremists because of the ruling family's control of the army and other state institutions, and because of military protection provided by the United States.
But he said the family will do whatever it takes to stay in power, and this may mean an even greater indulgence of militant Wahhabi Islam.
The United States, in turn, indulges the House of Saud, because of its vast oil reserves and because the Americans fear what instability in Saudi Arabia might mean for its war against Islamic terrorism.
But Aurel Braun, a professor of history and international relations at the University of Toronto, believes the long-term risks presented by the Saudi regime outweigh the dangers of immediate instability that would likely arise if the United States confronts the ruling Saudi family.
''It's almost like the tyranny of the weak,'' he said.
''They say, if you push us, we'll collapse and then you'll be sorry. Yes, any instability in Saudi Arabia will cause problems. But are we really preventing a bigger explosion?''
Mr. Braun said Saudi Arabia's support of international terrorism poses a far greater risk to Western interests than the possibility of disrupted oil supplies and regional instability.
''We are almost dealing with Saudi Arabia as if it were a patient with an addiction or a disease that is so dire that we don't dare disturb it because it might make it worse.... But the question that must be asked is: Are things going to get better?''
Dr. Braun believes, unless Western democracies take a stand and force the House of Saud to reform, the answer is no |
