Dan3, this was one of your all-time greatest posts!
I just had to bookmark it.
Message 16688989
"- Northwood with headroom up to 3GHz - basically a shrink of a mediocre chip"
A mediocre chip that is currently giving AMD heartburn, as well as $300M losses due to operations. You called this one "brilliantly".
"- DDR memory support - yes, copying AMD helps"
Why do I still see all the AMD based laptops with SDRAM memory? When will AMD copy Intel and start offering DDR?
"- McKinley based Itanium - bringing its performance closer to that of an entry level Celeron, and maybe this stepping will work. What will it cost and what software will it run?"
Dan, your call was simply "amazing" here. Celeron class performance in the McKinley processor... boy were you wrong. McKinley beats the Power4, and currently holds the position for the world's fastest processor for OLTP and Scientific tasks. And it costs about the same as the Xeon does, with plenty of new software support on the way.
"- .13u and 300mm wafer fabs - they've had .13 for months, 300mm may or may not save a few dollars per chip, 300mm is irrelevant. Infineon has been running 300mm for years - are they dominating the RAM industry and making higher profits?"
Wow, Dan. Looks like you were wrong again. And in a big way. Intel's .13u process has been its greatest strength. Looks like all your FUD was for nothing, huh?
"- Pentium 4 for mobile - kind of says it all, doesn't it? P4 is a terrible core design for a mobile chip, and Intel's leaky .13 won't help much. Mobile is looking very good for AMD next year."
And the Mobile Pentium 4-M is something special, isn't it Dan? It's kicking AMD's butt in the mobile space, and it appears that Intel has almost fully transitioned their highest volume mobile lines to this processor, which you called a "terrible core design for a mobile chip". Amazing that you can be wrong again and again and again.
Let's see how well you did for AMD.
"- A .13u process that's already spent - in your dreams, perhaps. Remember that when independent labs analyzed P4 and Athlon using one metric, they found that both had .09 transistors."
AMD did flop their .13u process, Dan. They are far behind. At .18u, they were 266MHz away from reaching Intel's top speed, and now they are 733MHz. By the end of this year, they will be almost 1GHz behind! Clock frequency may not mean everything to performance, but it certainly lets Intel pull ahead of anything that AMD has to offer.
"- An SOI process that will add huge costs - direct FAB costs in this business are a tiny part of total costs. The day that changes, Intel will be selling processors for $25. Look at the results IBM and Motorola are getting from SOI. Consider that SOI can dramatically reduce power consumption, and that Intel is already in something of a corner due to P4's power hungrey design."
Where are AMD's SOI chips, Dan? Why did they cancel SOI for Barton? Have you realized yet that AMD is having problems with SOI? Or why they suddenly think that they have to extend the life of their K7 line beyond Hammer? SOI must be such an "improvement" that AMD figured that they didn't want to take advantage of all these wonderful power saving features all at once.
"- An 8th generation product that has already been delayed 3 times - Compared to Itanium it's racing to market. It's a design that is performance compatible with existing code. It's a design that will be no more expensive to implement that 32 bit solutions, so it can seed the market for 64 bit developers without AMD pouring an extra $5 billion into technical marketing."
The jury is still out for x86-64. AMD seems to be having trouble selling it to any of the big OEMs. I wonder why that is?
"- Potentially, a much stronger mobile chip - almost certainly, a family of much stronger mobile chips. Even without SOI, Athlon4 looks quite competitive with P4. AMD will have low end and high end, SOI and simple shrink mobile chips next year."
Wrong again! AMD's mobile products are falling behind, letting Intel win back even more market share. In fact, AMD seems completely non-competitive in the mobile market, and without SOI in Barton, or much of a power improvement in their .13u process, it appears that there isn't much of a future for AMD in the mobile market in the foreseeable future.
"- a recovery in the Flash market - which for AMD will be golden. Flash is a large enough part of AMD's business that a flash recovery will have a huge, positive impact. Intel is basically a one trick Pony, which lives or dies with the corporate CPU market."
Looks like AMD was the one trick pony, and they died last quarter when flash took a nose dive, along with their failing CPU business.
You're just so "excellent" of a prophet, Dan, that you just made all these "brilliant" calls just 8 months ago. I've never seen anyone ever as dead wrong as you have been time and time again. I'm surprised that you continue to post and waste your time on this thread, even though all the other members have proved to you what an idiot you are.
wbmw |
