Tom, You haven't asked 20 Qs , so I remain seated.
I'm no Elliottician, I just call them as I see them.
Yes I am a cyclist, if you need to put an exact label. Not economy cycles but stock market cycles.
I try to look at the greater picture. I've predicted years ago ('92?, '93?) that Japan is not going to recover from the stagnation for years.
I based that on lack of future increase in domestic demand, zero growth of population (while population is aging), and chiefly, the US reclaming the role of locomotive of world economy.
The USD was highly undervalued @100 yen, but the end of the big cycle (started ten years before @350 yen) was there to grasp only after major drop to 80 yen reversed.
I've stated before that my scenario for the big K is not at all like a '87 crash. I'm not going to short the market till I get confirmations (all right, just a little bit MSFaT puts).
If wrong, no harm was done. Money cannot be made from the market every day. If right, will increase position as market acts the way I think it should.
Hindsight is 60-60 but think about this- What were traders buying yen against USD at 80 thinking?
They thought they were trading with the trend. Well, somtimes trends end.
Arik
Don't Panic |
