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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 242.19-1.7%3:59 PM EST
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To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (86192)8/1/2002 3:31:00 PM
From: PetzRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
Pravin, the Saifun technology looks like it is far better than anything either Intel or AMD has. EDITED - even better.

As a result, AMD may be able to bring four-bit-per-cell products to market as early as 2004, in device densities of 1 Gbit or higher.

Plouse said AMD aims to build a cell that would be 3.5 times larger than the lithographic feature size. AMD plans to build on that basic cell architecture for flash products aimed at data storage applications.

As a rough approximation, on 0.13u, that would make a 4-bit cell which occupies 0.455 x 0.455 microns, if I understand correctly. A tiny 5mm by 5mm die would have room for 10,989 x 10,989 cells x 4 bits/cell, or almost 483 million bits. That's over 19 million bits per square mm of silicon! Even allowing for decoding and addressing, it looks like a 256MBit chip would fit in less than 15-20mm of silicon real estate. I don't have any numbers, but my guess is that's smaller than the 64MBit mirror-bit chip AMD is selling now.

Intel will have to license this technology or drop out of the flash market, IMO. There is no way on earth that a reliable 16-level cell (4 bits) can be made, and I doubt there is any other way to put 4 bits in a cell that doesn't infringe on either AMD's or Saifun's technology. The main risk I see is that mass-manufacturing the 4-bit cells might be more difficult than lab-manufacturing them.

The justice department should never let Intel buy Saifun so I think Intel will be forced to pay through the nose to license the technology.

Petz
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