From NPR...
Aug. 1, 2002 -- The political landscape for the midterm elections is changing dramatically. So concludes the latest political survey conducted for NPR by Democrat Stan Greenberg and Republican Bill McInturff. The two say that what they consider to be the "leading political indicators" all have shifted -- sharply and suddenly.
A month ago, this was "a status quo election," says McInturff. In May, polling showed that 49 percent of likely voters thought the country was taking the "right direction," while 39 percent thought the country was on the "wrong track." The latest poll finds that just 36 percent think the country is taking the right direction, while the "wrong track" response drew 56 percent.
Both men say the corporate scandals, combined with bad economic news and a falling stock market, are responsible for the shift. "There has been a "real drop in optimism about the future of the economy," McInturff says.
"We've gone from a status quo election to an anti-incumbent election in a very short period of time," says Greenberg.
Still, the men agree that the shift in attitudes hasn't yet translated into a shift in planned voting behavior -- what Greenberg calls "ballot shift." The major parties are drawing about equal numbers, as they have for months, according to the poll.
But that will change, promises McInturff. He says the "right direction/wrong track" question is an early indicator, and while the effect on voting patterns isn't readily apparent, he's warning his Republican clients that they should expect things to change over the next few months. |
