NOK also down over 6% today - were they downgraded too?
The analysts seem to be using GSM growth projections as a bellwether for all of wireless, which, of course, has worked pretty well in the past. For them to believe Q's projections for CDMA, the analysts would have to concede that CDMA will gain market share over GSM. They aren't ready to do that.
In addition, I think (but have no hard data) the GSM replacement market is hurting of late, while Q is claiming a healthy replacement market for CDMA. That's also a source of some of the disconnect imo.
As positive as the CC was, Q did not really present a lot of evidence to support their claim for 80 to 85 million handsets for the CY. They said, as I recall, that they keyed off of royalty reports. But then conceded that they only have reports thru March. I know, Thornley talked thru this some, but it was not entirely watertight. Based on chip orders it's certainly a reasonable expectation imo, but many analysts have been scared into a negative mood.
When in doubt, downgrade. It's a bear market.
This is not fun.
/jack |
