Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (21936)	8/1/2002 9:40:57 PM
From: Hugh A	Read Replies (2) of 74559

Hi Jay - Perhaps we don't have to look too far into the future to see what the stock market is discounting. It seems that Argentina and now Uruguay and possibly Brazil are living today what might befall J6P (slightly higher in Canada) down the road. What happens if we do see a rapid and deep plunge in the USD with the simultaneous run on banks - will it be that different from Argentina? I'm not one to dwell on the downside, but I am vacationing in the Canadian Maritimes and have met widows without a pension who are now down 50% or more. They tell me that they wish I had told them that the market would go down (I was in cash by early '00, not being a trader). My reply is that they wouldn't have believed me and they don't disagree. No panic here yet, but alarm at the implications of a prolonged downturn. The widows (fishermen's wives) will be OK - they carry little debt and own real property free and clear. Hugh A.

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