Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Alex MG who wrote (98297)	8/2/2002 3:10:48 AM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (2) of 99280

I agree Zeev has not done badly at all. Even if his latest bull call is wrong, considering how he anticipated the Nassacre and has benefited from his other recent bull suit calls then he has done very well. And of course, he could still be proven right on the current bull call, which will make his record in the last 12 mths truly excellent. Where I do disagree with him is the call for a strong rally, even from these low levels. I think his increased top target comes from the belief that we have now capitulated, whereas at the end of June we hadn't had the capitulation and GNTs he was looking for. I believe we still haven't capitulated as shown by the high equity P/C and the speed with which implied volatilities have come back down and short rallies have reversed. I am also very bearish of MSFT (there is some very good analysis on MSFT on Velo's "Raptor's Den" thread) which I think will bring the indices down sharply. IMO, the fund redemptions we have seen is not a case of money moving to the "sidelines" as the bulls claim. The 2 yr+ bear is taking its financial toll and people are withdrawing their money to pay for the essentials of life, and for the interest payments on the goods they bought when they had new found wealth in their investment accounts. When the MSFT and tech carnage is over, I think there is money to be made from shorting the financials and real estate sectors. I should note I disagreed with Zeev at the end of September last year. He claimed to see capitulation and I said we hadn't. I was proved wrong and had a bad few months marketwise as a result. I guess eventuallly I was proven right by the failure of the Sep lows, but my predictions and investing at the time assumed more immediate downside and from that point of view, I was wrong.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next