Turkey deals a blow to action against Saddam
Ankara parliament sets date for early elections in response to political crisis
Jonny Dymond in Ankara
Thursday August 1, 2002
The Guardian
The Turkish prime minister, Bulent Ecevit, said yesterday that he is trying to dissuade the US from taking military action against Iraq.
He told the Turkish media that his government is "trying to convince the US administration to give up the operation".
"We can," he said, "make a concrete contribution towards peace in Iraq alongside the United States without a military operation."
The prime minister made the announcement as parliament voted to call an early election on November 3. Mr Ecevit's government has been in turmoil since the resignation of senior cabinet ministers and the defection of more than half his party over the past three weeks.
Rumours abounded in Istanbul yesterday of discussions between the American and Turkish governments.
The US ambassador, Robert Pearson, had been to the foreign ministry on Tuesday, and reports in Turkish newspapers suggested that he had passed on a request to station American land forces in Turkey and use airbases other than Incirlik, which Britain and the US already use to enforce the no-fly zone in northern Iraq.
Although Turkey remained a non-combatant during the Gulf war, it allowed alliance forces to fly from its airbases at Incirlik, Batman and Diyarbakir. The move was particularly unpopular among the military's general staff, but it was overruled by the civilian government.
Turgut Ozal, the prime minister at the time, believed that the country could gain from the Gulf war, but the government now says it lost up to $50bn (£32bn) as a result of the conflict and the ongoing trade embargo with Iraq.
As well as concern over further damage to its already battered economy, Turkey is afraid of the impact of another war on the Kurdish population in northern Iraq. It has sought - and received - assurances from the US administration that an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq would not be countenanced.
But for all the rhetoric from Turkey's politicians - and the almost certain opposition of the military - observers suggest that Turkey may become an unwilling partner to the US.
General Arman Kuloglo, who left the military in 1999 and now heads the Eurasian Strategic Studies Institute in Ancara, believes that Turkey will be forced to participate whether it wants to or not. "If the US wants it, Turkey cannot sit on the outside," he said. "It will have to take part or risk losing all influence over what might come afterwards."
Gen Kuloglu also believes that Turkey might end up occupying part of northern Iraq.
"Turkey may go up to the 36th parallel," he said. "It will want to control the area because of refugees and because it also doesn't want the towns of Kirkuk and Mosul to fall to the Kurds."
Both towns are rich in oil, and their status has been mentioned in the media as part of the conditions demanded by Turkey in exchange for any assistance in a US operation.
The early elections are unlikely to affect Turkey's position on Iraq. None of the political parties that might constitute a new government has voiced any enthusiasm for US action. Should an Islamic or pro-Islamist party take power, it may take a firmer line against Turkish cooperation.
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