HEADING DOWN TO THE JERSEY SHORE WITH MY HONEY..HAVE A GREAT TRADING DAY AND A FABULOUS WEEKEND ALL....
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED JULY 28TH 2002
"VOLATILITY--YOWZA!!!!"
Hi everyone hope this letter finds you and yours in good health and better spirits...These days what with all the newspaper, magazine covers, and bearishness out there it's a wonder anyone can smile<G>..We can though!..You betcha..We're doing just fine, trading each and every day successfully earning our keep(our Days Pay), and hopefully helping others do the same...
I think I've never seen such intraday volatility before in these markets. While we daytraders love it, I suspect longer term traders and investors are stunned by the intraday movements in these markets...Just amazing to me. At these very oversold levels the tug of war out there is immense..The Bulls and Bears are fighting it out here and I think the BULLS are going to win this one very soon..
Not calling this a bottom yet, as our main coaches have NOT turned up just yet, and I do not want to anticipate it or predict it. But..we are nearer the lows then the highs everyone, that's pretty obvious..Every single Point & Figure Indicator I follow is deeply oversold, and most are historically oversold...While we are still in the negative seasonal area of the markets heading into Sept Oct time frames, my educated guess is that we will reverse up ahead of those Macro Cycle Lows, and then explode up...You must be ready. If your not aware of this phenomenon then your going to get caught short. Meaning with your pants down...<vbg>
Now I think it's time again to address what your going to do in preparation of this coming event..First sell all, I said ALL your dogs with fleas, even though it will hurt like hell. Next take that cash and begin to amass a list of 10-20 stocks you wish to own on down the road...WE ARE NOT INVESTING YET. Then the way we do this is, when the NYSE & OTC BP's reverse back up again, you'll have that needed cash to buy LEAPS, STOCKS, OR STOCKS WITH DIVIDENDS AND WRITE LEAPS AGAINST THAT POSITION...It's time to rethink every thing you've been doing for all these years...On our 2004 Leaps calls?, we'll double up at the lows here, not where we bought them. You should only have 2-3 contracts anyway. And "IF" you did as suggested by writing covered calls against those leap calls your almost even now or certainly your cost basis is very low...If not?, this will help.
OK LET'S CHECK THE INDEXES AND THE INDICATORS ON P&F...
DJIA---OK WELL THIS COULD BE COOL...NOW DON'T GET EXCITED YET<G>...BUT THE DAILY CANDLE CHART LOOKS NICE HERE...WE TOUCHED 7550 ON THE DOWNSIDE AND THAT WAS A BIG MOVE DOWN. OFF THAT TOUCH WE RALLIED BACK UP TO 8300 AND THEN STARTED TO ROLL OVER AGAIN, BUT NOW JUST 3 BOXES. TO 8150..SO HERE'S THE PICTURE..8350 IS A BREAKOUT BUY SIGNAL ON BOTH THE P&F CHART AND CANDLE CHART TOO..THE NYSEBP IS AT 24% AND IN A COLUMN OF O'S STILL...WATCHING...I LIKE THIS INDEX UP THIS WEEK...
NAZ/COMPX---WATCH FOR 1350 THE NEW 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP HERE FOR A POTENTIAL RUN TO 1550/1600 OVER SOME TIME..HOWEVER THERE IS O/H(OVERHEAD) R(RESISTANCE) AT 1350 TOO..WE DO HAVE A DOUBLE INSIDE BAR ON THE CANDLE CHART AND WE MUST TAKE THIS OUT AT ABOUT 1300, THE FIRST ORDER OF THE DAY..
SOX---WHO'DA THUNK IT?...THE NEWEST WEAKEST LINK..TOOK HONORS AWAY FROM THE BIOS<G> 300 IS THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND...DO NOT WANT TO BREAK THAT...340 WOULD BE A START ON A BETTER MOVE UP..AT LEAST THAT NUMBER WOULD TAKE IT OVER THE TOP OF THE "HANGING MAN" ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART<HAHAHAHAHA>...THE BPSEMI HAS REVERSED BACK DOWN AGAIN TESTING 12%...LIKE A YO=-YO..
SPX---NICE CANDLE CHART SAME AS THE DOW...WE HAD 3 NICE STICKS HERE..A BIG BULLISH BAR THE DAY WE RALLIED UP 500 POINTS, THEN THE HANGING MAN, THEN THIS NARROW RANGE BAR, BUT A BULLISH ONE, WE NEED TO POP 860/65 TO KEEP IT GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...
BTK---1ST SIGNS OF LIFE HERE IN THIS "USED TO BE WEAKEST LINK" INDEX...BOTH ON P&F AND DAILY CANDLE CHARTS THEY ARE SETTING UP NICELY HERE. A PRINT OVER 345/350 WOULD GET US STARTED HIGHER...IT MAY TAKE A FEW WEEKS TO FULLY DEVELOPED THOUGH. I SEE A VERY NICE CUP WITH HANDLE HERE AND ALL HAMMERS ARE HOLDING AT THE MOMENT. TO ME IT'S IN MY FAVORITE LONG SIDE TRADING PATTERN "A PENNANT"...
BBH---OHHH I REALLY LIKE TO TRADE THIS ETF...IT'S GREAT..I HAVE TRADED IT 4 TIMES ALREADY AND DID VERY WELL..IN FACT I HELD IT OVER NIGHT AT 71.70 SOLD IT FOR 74.75 AND IT RAN ALL THE WAY UP TO 78????? GOOD GOSH, COULD NOT BELIEVE IT...I WILL ENTER THIS LONG ON MONDAY FOR A POP...THE BREAKOUT BUY IS 78.25 YOU COULD TAKE IT EARLIER TOO WITH A NICE STOP MARKET WILLING...
QQQ---2 INSIDE BARS ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART AND TOUCHED THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK BAND. 25 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP..27/28 O/H R THERE..
NDX--SAME CHART AS THE QQQ--NEED 920 FIRST, WATCHING 940/50 O/H R THERE...950 IS THE BREAKOUT DOUBLE TOP(DT) BUY SIGNAL ON P&F..
VIX---WELL WELL MR. VIX HEH HEH HEH...HIGH POLE WARNING HERE FOLKS...MAYBE SHORT TERM THIS INDEX IS DOA...BODES WELL FOR THE MARKETS... HERE'S THE GAME PLAN...IT TOUCHED 56 THE TOP HERE..THEN FELL LIKE A STONE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 40 ISH...A BIG MOVE DOWN...MY GUESS IS THAT IT WILL PUSH BACK UP TOWARD 47/48ISH RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS PULLBACK AREA MAKING A LOWER TOP, AND THEN ROLL OVER AND DOWN...WE'LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS..
VXN---THIS ONE BROKE OUT AT 71 A SPREAD TRIPLE TOP AS THE NAZ RALLIED? A BULLISH DIVERGENCE? LET'S SEE IF IT CAN REVERSE HERE TO 68, THEN WE'LL SEE WHATS UP?..MAN YA GOTTA BE A SLEUTH<VGA>...
XAU---COULD GET A SHORT DCB HERE TO SHORT...AS FOR THE FUTURES MY TARGET STILL IS 295/90 AREA...
BTW...DOES EVERYONE KNOW WHAT A PENNANT LOOKS LIKE AND A REVERSE PENNANT FORMATION..BOTH ON THE DAILY, 5 MINUTE AND 1 MINUTE CHARTS??? THIS PATTERN WILL MAKE YOU MORE MONEY THAN THE POWERBALL LOTTERY..
OK NOW IT'S OUR FAVORITE STOCKS WE KNOW AND LOVE...BTW...JUST A HEADS UP HERE FOLKS..MY BUY TRIGGER LONGS(BTL) & SHORT SALE TRIGGERS(SST) ARE FOR DAY TRADES ONLY.."UNLESS" IN THE BODY OF THE TEXT I SAY "IF THE STOCK GIVES A CONTINUATION SELL/BUY SIGNAL" STAY LONG OR SHORT...MEANING DO NOT SELL THAT DAYTRADE JUST TRAIL UP STOPS....ANY SCALPS TRADES WE ARE TAKING WHAT WE CAN GET QUICKLY..WE KILLED MSFT ON FRIDAY AND I CALLED A VERY SWEET LONG AMGN TRADE LATE IN THE DAY AND MADE 65 CENTS PROFIT...
MSFT---MR. SOFTIE INPERSON<G> TRADED IT 5-6 TIMES FOR SOLID MONEY, AND STILL OWN THE FIRST LOT AT 45.01...RIGHT NOW MSFT IS DOING A DCB HERE...SO I ALREADY KNOW IT WILL BACK AND FILL..IT;S SHORTABLE TOO...46.35 THE BTL...44.25 THE SST...BTW IT DID REVERSE UP HERE 3 BOXES...49 IS THE 20 EMA DAILY..
AMGN---RALLIED NICELY OFF A BUY SIGNAL ON P&F...PRETTY LOOKING CANDLE CHART TOO...HAS O/H R AT THE BRL LINE..AROUND 45...44.25 THE BTL...42.25 THE SST...WE COULD CATCH A NICE SS HERE AT THE TOUCH OF THE BRL...
BRCD---UNDERWATER IN THIS STOCK..BUT HAVE BEEN SCALPING TO MY HEARTS CONTENT FOR THE PAST WEEK TO CORRECT MY 2 STOCKS UNDERWATER BRCD & BRCM...I HAVE TIME AND MONEY<G>...OF COURSE WHERE THE HECK WAS MY STOPS???..THIS STOCK IS RIGHT AT THE BSL LINE AND SHOULD BOUNCE...I'LL SELL THE COMING BOUNCE...I HOPE<GULP>...17.15 THE BTL....15.75 THE SST...
BRCM--- THE OTHER DOG...STOCK FELL OUTTA BED WHEN THEY HIT THE SOX..BUT IT'S FUNNY THE RS VS. THE SPX JUST REVERSED UP HERE? INTERESTING...17.90 THE BTL...16.50 THE SST..
CEPH---RS POSITIVE...P&F CHART IS FORMING A TRIANGLE WELL GOLLY G..RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE BSL LINE AND THE BRL LINE..HMMM THIS SHOULD BE FUN...43.20 THE BTL...41 THE SST..WITH THAT PRINT A 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN MAKING THE TRIANGLE LOOK EVEN BETTER..I MADE GOOD MONEY ON THIS TRADE EVEN THO I WAS UNDERWATER EARLY...
CHIR---THIS BIO TECH IS STARTING TO LOOK A BIT BETTER...31 THE BTL..IF IT TAKES OUT 32 A BUY SIGNAL ON P&F, STAY LONG AND TRAIL UP STOPS...29.25 THE SST...
EBAY---ACTUALLY BROKE DOWN OUT OF A RISING WEDGE AND IS TRYING TO REPAIR ITSELF...HELP!...HEHEHEHE...SHORTS HAVE HAMMERED THIS ONE HARD...56 THE BTL...MIGHT RUN TO 58/59 AREA HERE...MARKET WILLING...53.80 THE SST...53 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN..
GILD---SEEMS TO BE TROUBLE AHEAD FOR THIS STOCK FOR SOME REASON? AND I CAN'T FIGURE IT OUT..THEY CAME IN WITH VERY GOOD NUMBERS AND IT GOT CREAMED...29 THE BTL...MUST BREAKOUT HERE AT 32...27.25 THE SST...ANY PRINT OF 26 YOU STAY SHORT..A TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAK? AMAZING..
IDPH---LOVE THIS STOCK AND MADE GOOD MONEY TRADING IT LAST WEEK...FORMING A PENNANT FORMATION ON THE DAILY...40.70 THE BTL...38 THE SST...TRIPLE TOP BREAKOUT AT 43..LOOKS AWESOME THERE STAY LONG & TRIAL UP STOPS..I KNOW I WILL<G>...
KLAC---ONCE A SUPER STAR NOW DOWNTRODDEN AND WEAK...SHAME<G>...A BIT OVERSOLD HERE AND EPS ON THE 30TH...I LIKE IT FOR A BOUNCE...38.60 THE BTL...40 THE 3BOXRVUP...36 THE SST..
MEDI---WE USED TO TRADE THIS INTRADAY FOR VERY NICE MONEY..LET'S SEE IF THIS NICE BIO TECH CAN GET BACK TO DOING JUST THAT...NICE PENNANT ON THE DAILY HERE...27 THE BTL...WAIT FOR IT...ACTUALLY 27.75 IS THE BREAKOUT OF THE PENNANT...STAY LONG THERE...30 WOULD BE THE NEAR TERM TARGET...25.15 THE SST..
MYGN---THIS STOCK HAS TOUCHED THE BRL LINE TWICE NOW..THE THIRD TIME SHOULD BE A CHARMER<G>..I SEE BREAKOUT CITY WRITTEN ALL OVER THIS ONE...20.60 THE BTL...21 THE 3 BOX UP....22 HEAVY R THERE BUT FOLKS 23 IS AN EXPLOSION WAITING TO HAPPEN...TAKE IT AND HOLD IT...LET'S HOPE WE CAN TRAIL THIS ONE UP..SWEET..
QCOM---HAD GREAT EARNINGS AND GUIDED HIGHER, THEY SOLD IT LIKE EVERYTHING ELSE IN THIS MARKET<G>...IT BETTER HOLD 25 FOLKS...26.90 THE BTL...29 THE 3BXREVUP...24 THE SST AND ONE INCREDIBLE SST...I'LL TAKE THAT FOR SURE...SET ALERTS...
QLGC---HAD SENSATIONAL EPS AND FORWARD GUIDENCE AND THE CHART LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL DEATH..BUT WHAT THE HELL DOESN'T???...38.75 THE BTL...40 THE 3BXREVUP, LOTS OF O/H R AT 44 CAN IT EVEN GET THERE???...36.25 THE SST I'LL TAKE THAT ONE FOR SURE...BREAK 33 THATS DEATH..
GE---JUST REVERSED UP ON THE P&F CHART FROM BEING VERY OVERSOLD HERE...28.50 THE BTL...26.40 THE SST..I LIKE IT UP HERE...
CCMP---MOVING BACK UP TO ANOTHER LOWER TOP SO FAR...O/H R AT 42 THE TRIPLE TOP...YOU ALREADY NOW KNOW WHAT 43 MEANS RIGHT?<VBG>...39.90 THE BTL...38 THE SST...
EXPE---SO FAR A DCB HERE OFF A VERY OVERSOLD CONDITION..EPS WAS VERY GOOD...CANDLE CHART IS IN A TRIANGLE HERE...48 THE BTL...49+ THE BREAKOUT OF THE TRIANGLE...45.90 THE SST..
MO---I LOVE THIS STOCK IF IT CAN GET IT A BIT LOWER FOR A BUY AND HOLD STOCK...47.50 THE BTL...48 THE DT BUY AREA...I'LL TAKE THIS TRADE LONG...45.25 THE SST...
IBM---WHAT A TRADER..YA GOTTA GET INTO THIS ONE MORE OFTEN...TRYING TO BASE BUILD IN THE 66/67 RANGE HERE...67.50 THE BTL...69 THE 3BXREVUP...65.50 THE SST..AND A GOOD ONE..65 IS A BIG TIME BREAKDOWN THERE...
OK THATS IT FOR NOW..I AM LOOKING FOR SOME FOLLOW THRU THIS WEEK TILL THE CYCLE TOP ON THE 30TH...THE CHARTS LOOK OK HERE BUT WE STILL NEED THEM TO WORK WITH BREAKOUTS ON ALL THE INDEXS..I'LL BE WATCHING..SET ALERTS PLEASE...
HANG IN THERE FOLKS...GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK..
WARMEST REGARDS
JERRY
Jerry Olson
MasterClassTraders.com
jerry@masterclasstraders.com
buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com |
