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Technology Stocks : Octel Communications OCTL
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To: dav who wrote (678)7/17/1997 1:37:00 PM
From: David R   of 733
 
None of us saw this one comming. Congratulations to all who have seen OCtel double. Especially Gregory Holden, my esteemed jousting partner :)

A cautionary note:

No PBX company has been very successful with VM. Rolm Failed with PhoneMail, NT's Meridian mail is lackluster, and AT&T Audix (now LU) quite candidly stinks. I think that Lucent is making a mistake.

The problem is that the other switch providers will not want to use a competitor's product. Over time, Octel market share will diminish to only users of Lucent switches by and large. Also, the late products will be even later due to the excitement and confusion of the buyout. Holding Lucent shares is a good choice. Not because they own Octel, but because of their core competency (switching). Messaging is a business that Lucent knows little about.

What many have missed in regards to this buyout is the impact on the remainder of VM providers. For instance, CGRM is now the largest independent VM company (although their recently announced relationship with Lucent wireless may be in jepardy). CGRM is also a major value play with share price of $12 which is roughly the value of the company. Also, ActiveVoice stands to gain tremendously.

The big question now is will Lucent competitors begin buying up the remaining independents? If so, they shareholders will gain (including me), but over time, the quality of the VM products will diminish.
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