You know Gottfried you are right there is no real hard evidence of a back breaking decline in future chip sales. What there is though is evidence that the rate of economic recovery has slowed so much that we may have a double dip recession.
In fact the market is now expecting another rate cut from the FED. That is not something any of us really wanted to see. Of course at this point the rate cut might actually spark a rally. A real nice rally just like the utility stocks got these last couple of weeks.
Someone please keep me from going long on the semiconductors until we hit 250 on the SOX.
stockcharts.com[l,a]mhclyiay[d19950101,20020731][pb50!b200!d20,2!i!f][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!Ul14!Lp14,3,3!Lf!Lc20!Lah12,26,9]&pref=G
That's my target now. I think we will get it just like the UTY hit 225 (actually lower) and then get a rally off the bottom.
stockcharts.com[l,a]mhclyiay[d19950101,20020731][pb50!b200!d20,2!i!f][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!Ul14!Lp14,3,3!Lf!Lc20!Lah12,26,9]&pref=G
From Briefing.com: 11:41AM Chip stocks swamp the New Low list : Among the chip stocks hitting new 52-Wk lows this morning are Maxim (MXIM -8%), Analog Devices (ADI -8%), International Rectifier (IRF -4%), Cypress Semi (CY -5.4%), Texas Instruments (TXN -7.1%), Linear Tech (LLTC -5.4%), Lattice Semi (LSCC -5.7%), National Semi (NSM -5.4%), Advanced Micro (AMD -4.8%), NVIDIA (NVDA -5.4%) and Chartered Semi (CHRT -1.5%), joined by chip equipment makers Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC -5%) and Teradyne (TER -4.3%)... Other notables include Veritas (VRTS -1%), Petco (PETC -5.2%), Netflix (NFLX -14%), American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS -5.7%), Great Atlantic & Pacific (GAP -9.9%), Administaff (ASF -13%), Massey Energy (MEE -14%), Stage Stores (STGS -6.3%), Footstar (FTS -3.2%), Pixelworks (PXLW -8.8%), Continental Airlines (CAL -9.7%), Tollgrade (TLGD -2.3%), Checkfree (CKFR -3.8%), Tellabs (TLAB -6.4%).
11:14AM TXN has taken out $20.10 one-yr low set 9/21/01 19.45 -1.66:
10:59AM Rumors out of Europe : We are hearing a rumor that a big announcement is coming out of Europe at 4 PM London Time/11 AM ET; we haven't heard much in the way of specifics, but there's speculation of a European Central Bank surprise press conference, or perhaps some word from a distressed bank.
10:58AM Intel Intraday (INTC) 17.02 -0.54: -- Update -- -- Technical -- The stock is getting hit along with the rest of the semi sector today with INTC attempting to stabilize after testing lows from July 24-26 near 17. Without a recovery through 17.10 and more importantly the 17.25/17.30 area it is expected to remain on the defensive. Next supports are at 16.51 (July 11 low) and 16.26 (July low).
10:43AM Sector Watch: Semiconductor : Warnings and downgrades continue to plague the sector with the SOX index recently taking out the psych barrier at 300 and pushing to its lowest level since November 1998. The weakest links this morning include: MXIM -7.4%, LLTC -5.4%, XLNX -4%, TER-3.6%, AMD -3.7%, LSCC -3.8% and MU -3.3%. If unable to stabilize back above the 300 level short term, the index will remain vulnerable. Next support of importance for the index is in the 288/285 area followed by 275
10:30AM NVDA breaks psych support at $10; plunges to new lows 9.45 -0.56:
8:46AM More employment thoughts : The key bad news in the report was the decline in the workweek. The payrolls number was below expectations, but the trend in payrolls still looks like one of very, very slow improvement. After sharp declines late last year and small declines in March/April, payroll growth has averaged 31K growth in the past three months. That's not that impressive, but it's movement in the right direction. We wouldn't consider this report good news, but we would label it more of the same - it indicates that the economic recovery remains very sluggish, but it does not point to a significant increased risk of a double dip recession.
8:41AM Marvell cut to Outperform at Solly amid margin concerns (MRVL) 16.85: Salomon Smith Barney downgrades to OUTPERFORM from Buy. Firm reducing estimates to reflect concerns about long-term gross margins. Trims 2003 (end Jan) est to $0.40 from $0.41 and 2004 to $0.68 from $0.79. Price target goes to $22 from $42.
8:31AM Bear Stearns comments on SIA data : Bear Stearns says that the June SIA data indicates that unit growth improved while pricing continued to be extremely competitive; 3-month moving avg unit shipments grew 18% YoY, up from 11% YoY in May, while 3-month moving avg revenue shipments fell by 2% YoY, up from a 10% YoY decline in May. Firm does not expect the pricing environment to improve until we see more evidence of supply constraints and lengthening lead times, but notes that recent trends point to slowing price declines. Favorite stocks in the group are: CY, FCS, ICST, INTC, LSI, MU, TXN, and VSH.
7:49AM Adobe Systems upgraded by Deutsche on valuation (ADBE) 16.83: Deutsche Securities upgrades to MKT PERFORM from Underperform based on valuation; price target is $18.
7:48AM CSFB lowers estimates for analog companies : Firm reduces FY02 est for ADI to $0.51 from $0.58 and FY03 to $0.63 from $1.07... MXIM est for FY03 goes to $0.89 from $1.07... Reduces FY03 est for NSM goes to $0.05 from $0.57 and FY04 to $0.31 from $1.03.
RtS |
