agreed- I'm not saying the picture is healthy or anything. But to read Roach's piece, he implies it is.
And his implication that the 90s "software boom" was a bubble- that is very poor fundamental research. Prior to 95, IBM sold databases, after 95, you bought your databases from Oracle. It was the same money, actually less. (IBM overcharged). Also accounting software- pre-95, in an IBM world you bought something from IBM, today you buy SAP. It looks like all this money flowed into software in the 90s as if it was new, bubble-money. IN fact it was the same old capex, allocated a different way, usually less $$ in total because the unix boxes were so cheap compared to the mainframes.
The software picture is bad, now, as bad as its gonna get- it can't go back to pre-95 levels because in pre-95, the money was allocated to hardware. You can't run a fortune 500 company without an accounting package. Roach obviously didn't run this piece by his software analyst dept.
Anyway stocks are going down I'm not questioning his outcome its just his interpretation of statistics is incorrect.
I know, I know too many fundamentals for this thread!
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